Milk war takes centre stage in poll-bound Karnataka
IT is easy to forecast poll trends, but difficult to foretell the outcome — this holds as true for Karnataka as for any other state.
An issue that lurked around the corner since December 2022 sprung back with an intensity that will not be to the BJP’s liking. The BJP, ruling Karnataka since July 2019, is looking at another term in office after a messy tenure marked by wholesale defections from the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) — which together gave a short-lived coalition government — unending demands from the deserters, two Chief Ministers neither of who was allowed to strike roots, corruption allegations and the perception that the communal situation had deteriorated. The BJP’s thrust to conflate the state polls with a national referendum on the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘achievements’ had an unexpected fallout that took the electioneering’s focus from the national to a regional issue and touched the heart of Kannadiga ‘pride’.
The genesis of the issue dates back to December 30, 2022, when Union Home Minister Amit Shah was in Gejjalagere, Mandya district, to inaugurate a Rs 260-crore dairy plant. Shah, who is also the Cooperation Minister, lauded Karnataka for the rapid strides made in the milk cooperative sector. He said, “I come from a state (Gujarat) where the White Revolution changed farmers’ destiny…I want to assure farmers that Amul and Nandini can work together to set up primary diaries in every village of India so that in three years not one village will be without a primary dairy. I want to tell the Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF) that technical support, cooperative support and Amul’s functioning know-how will be available…and Gujarat and Karnataka together will work towards making farmers prosperous.” Nandini is the brand name under which the KMF markets its products and is regarded as a success story.
Movie superstars Dr Rajkumar, Upendra and Puneeth Rajkumar were Nandini’s brand ambassadors at various times. Opposition leaders and former Chief Ministers Siddaramaiah and HD Kumaraswamy promptly reacted, calling Shah’s speech an affront to the pride and self-respect of Kannadigas. Stung by their criticisms, Karnataka BJP leaders privately ruled out an Amul-Nandini merger which the Congress and JD(S) hinted at. Although dairy farming is becoming less lucrative, Karnataka has always been sensitive, even protectionist, about its role models.
The controversy hit the BJP harder because Old Mysuru in south-central Karnataka is the hub of the dairy business. It is also the region which the BJP has focused upon seriously in the past few years because it could never break into Old Mysuru — traditionally a JD(S) and Congress stronghold. The Vokkaligas, one of the two dominant communities, have generally not voted for the BJP because it commanded the near-total support of the rival community, the Lingayats. Old Mysuru houses the Mysuru, Mandya, Chamarajanagar, Hassan and Ramanagara areas of which Hassan is the citadel of HD Deve Gowda, the JD(S) patriarch and former Prime Minister, while DK Shivakumar, the Karnataka Congress president, reigns over Ramanagara. The BJP set a target of winning four seats in each of the districts. It realised if it has to cross the hump and get a majority on its own, it must breach Old Mysuru.
Although its leaders averred that ‘development’ was their only plank from ‘start to end’, faith-related issues, which fetch dividends in the BJP’s original bastions in the coastal belt of north and south Karnataka as well as Shivamogga and Chikmagalur, overshadowed the tenure of BS Bommai, who replaced BS Yediyurappa as the CM in July 2021. The net result is while the BJP is battling corruption allegations, it has kept its core Hindutva base happy by passing a law banning cow slaughter, curbing religious conversions and inter-religious marriages to check the so-called love ‘jihad’, backing the RSS’s campaign against Muslim women for wearing the hijab to schools and colleges and threatening to bring in the Yogi Adityanath ‘model’ of demolishing properties of minorities if they ‘defied’ legal injunctions. Defensive over the BJP’s charge of ‘appeasing Muslims and Christians’, the Congress and JD(S) remained muted about the Hindutva drive.
The imponderables for the BJP are the extent of backing for former CM Yediyurappa from the powerful Lingayat community even after he demitted office, Bommai’s acceptability among the Lingayats, the BJP’s ability to coax the support of other groupings like the Vokkaligas, backward castes and Dalits, efficacy of the communal card and credibility of the double-engine narrative.
If the shadow of Yediyurappa still looms large over the BJP, the Congress grapples with the power play manifest in the scarcely concealed intent of both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to get the CM’s throne. The stirrings were visible after the Congress released its list of nominees.
Shivakumar got the ticket from his earlier seat, Kanakapura, while Siddaramaiah was nominated from Varuna, a seat that his son Yathindra won in 2018. In the process, Siddaramaiah’s legacy was checkmated. Although projected as a ‘mass’ leader by the cheer brigade, Siddaramaiah’s victory margins in elections have been pathetic. He won his last election from Badami by a whisker and lost the second seat, Chamundeshwari. Congress workers in both places made it demonstrably clear that he was unwanted. The Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah duo represents two opposing castes, the Vokkaliga and the backward caste Kuruba, respectively, but the rainbow coalition the Congress looks to put together may not work on the ground. The Congress’s capability to smoothen rough edges and enter as a unified force may hold the key to the success the Gandhis want and need.
As for the JD(S), the third angle of the triangle, Kumaraswamy has got embroiled in a conflict with his brother HD Revanna, who is nursing aspirations for his own family.
