Modi’s rhetorical leaps

S Nihal Singh

WE are in an intriguing moment in the nation’s political life with neither the ruling party nor the Opposition knowing how and when to give way. Parliament’s winter session has been a washout and television channels have been reminding us how much it costs the country each day. While the Opposition is exploiting to the hilt the dislocation and chaos the demonetisation measure has caused the people, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eloquent outside the House varying his emphasis from tackling black money to the merits of a cashless economy.

To those old enough to remember Jawaharlal Nehru and the respect he had for the institution, despite the pitifully small Opposition of the time, Mr Modi’s approach is different. His pulpit is addressing crowds outside Parliament, ideally before Assembly elections, to lambast the Opposition. Parliament by its nature constrains rhetoric, apart from the shouting the Opposition parties and sometimes government benches indulge in, and the Prime Minister feels more at home in a larger and more freewheeling environment.

Politically, the nub of the problem is simple. After more than two years in office, Mr Modi is not only setting the agenda but seems to be running away with it, and the demonetisation move, in itself a bold one, has given the Opposition parties an occasion to come together, however momentarily, and break the momentum of the BJP’s efforts to seal victory in the crucial UP and Punjab Assembly elecions.

The vehemence with which Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is seeking to joust with Mr Modi in leading the Opposition offensive tells another tale. Since Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar chose to support the demonetisation move, she felt the leadership role in getting the Opposition together was vacant and threw her hat in the ring for what it was worth. Perhaps she forgot that what sells in Bengal in the form of strident attacks on opponents comes across as being out of tune against the ruling dispensation at the Centre. In other words, she overplayed her hand, especially in regard to her life being allegedly in danger on a commercial flight, and taking potshots at the Army for conducting a drill in Kolkata.

Both the government and the Opposition are fully aware of the importance of the UP Assembly election for the future trajectory of the nation. The BJP is aware that its future plans of giving Mr Modi a second five-year term in the 2019 general election is dependent, in part, on how well the party does in UP, the state with a bounty in Assembly sets and raising the tally in the Rajya Sabha where the BJP does not have a majority. The magic brew, in the BJP’s reckoning, lies in exploiting the “surgical strikes” on Pakistan, the demonetisation measure in depriving Opposition parties of much of the cash they had hoarded for election purposes and the appeal of the Hindutva flag to corner most Hindu votes.

It is no coincidence that Mr Modi has been addressing large crowds in UP on the BJP’s merits and lambasting the Opposition. If fog robs him of a personal appearance, the tools of modern technology are pressed into service. Disregarding the convention that a sitting PM does not spearhead election campaigns in Assembly elections, Mr Modi believes that he is his party’s best campaigner and lustily gets into the act.

With the government and the Opposition failing to find a meeting point, each side will sing its own song. Where does it take the country? In rhetorical terms, political instability will be the norm, rather than the exception until the government emerges out of the woods with a measure of predictability in free availability of new high currency notes. In colourful language Mr Modi had suggested that people could hang him if things did not normalise after 50 days after his announcement. The prospect is that it will take longer for new currency to be freely available although he has shifted ground in the meantime by singing the virtues of a cashless economy placing the mobile phone centre stage.

Few leaders can match Mr Modi in rhetorical skill and he has projected the entire demonetisation exercise as expressly in aid of the poor. Although the poor are suffering in a greater measure than the rich by standing in long queues for hours at ATM outlets to withdraw their own rationed money, many seem to have bought his arguments. And to lend further credence hoards of unbelievable wealth in old and new high currency notes come tumbling out of homes in several Indian cities. How the police could pinpoint the offenders with seeming ease is another story.

Beyond these evocative scenes lie questions of Mr Modi’s political objectives and the response of the Opposition. The scene will soon shift to the streets and political gatherings. Mr Rahul Gandhi’s theme song of possessing explosive material on Mr Modi will soon be tested, as will the wanderings of Opposition parties in different directions. The Samajwadi Party of the Yadav family empire and Ms Mayawati of the BSP are the main opponents of the BJP in UP, with the Congress being a minor player. Both the SP and the BSP are masters of the game of contesting elections and the BJP is unlikely to repeat its stellar performance of the past. How well they will perform, with the BJP mixing religion with nationalism, is anyone’s guess, but in realistic terms the BJP’s goal will be to lead a coalition in the state.

Much depends upon how soon the Modi government is out of the woods in ensuring free availability of money. Rhetoric and play on patriotism have their limits and if the money supply does not measure up to people’s expectations, there is trouble in store for the government.