Munir tightens grip on unstable Pakistan

EVEN as the dust settles on the mysterious six-day delay in notifying Field Marshal Asim Munir as Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), the omnipotent military establishment has not been able to comfortably push the narrative of smooth governance and stability on the political and economic fronts.

The confusion temporarily led to speculation about former PM Nawaz Sharif’s unease over Munir’s assumption of absolute powers. However, saner counsel seems to have prevailed as the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) will have to keep relying on the army leadership’s assistance for long-term political survival — the CDF will now remain in place for nearly two years beyond the next general election.

On December 11, announcing the verdict of the much-delayed Field General Court Martial (FGCM) against Faiz Hameed, now divested of military rank, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) indicated that the FGCM had found him guilty on all four charges — engaging in political activities, violating the Official Secrets Act in a manner “detrimental to the safety and interest of the state”, misuse of authority and government resources, and causing wrongful loss to individuals. It emphasised that “all legal rights, including the right to a defence team of his choice” had been complied with.

Significantly, in a thinly veiled threat to implicate former PM Imran Khan in a future military trial, the ISPR elaborated that Hameed’s “involvement in fomenting vested political agitation and instability in cohorts with political elements and in certain other matters” would be dealt with separately.

The stiff sentence of 14-year rigorous imprisonment was unexpected. Apart from suggesting that senior army Generals were not exempt from accountability, its timing marked a warning against possible voices of dissent opposed to Munir’s extended coterminous tenure as CDF and Army Chief. It also left open scope for Hameed to turn approver against Imran at a later stage.

The army leadership changed its strategy of providing regular access to Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (PTI) leaders and Imran’s relatives to meet him in Adiala jail. After a long gap, when rumours surfaced about his well-being and possible shifting to an undisclosed location, one of his sisters was allowed to see him. Imran’s ex-wife Jemima Khan complained in a tweet on X to Elon Musk about his sons not being allowed to communicate with him. This allegation was strenuously denied by the Foreign Office.

While Imran has not relinquished his posture of confrontation, a new 23-member political coordination committee of the PTI was set up to act as an interface with the military establishment. Headed by advocate Salman Akram Raja, it comprises more moderates and only a sprinkling of known hardliners. Mehmood Khan Achakzai, Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, was included. On the other hand, Sohail Afridi, newly-appointed Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), has been tasked with upping the ante of public protests in his province.

Addressing the National Ulema Conference in Islamabad on December 10, Asim Munir urged religious scholars to help foster national unity and provide better quality education in madrasas. Referring to persisting terrorism in KP and Balochistan, he cautioned that in an Islamic state, only the State could declare jihad. The question-answer session at the conference was strictly regulated and Munir walked away even as a few lone voices raised murmurs of dissent, dissociating madrasa education from terror.

The judiciary has remained muted and sullen, even as sections of the Bar at the national and provincial levels continue to criticise the 26th and 27th Amendments. Justice Tariq Mehmood Jahangiri appeared in the Islamabad High Court to defend the veracity of his law degree, but Chief Justice Dogar disregarded his request to recuse himself from the hearing.

With political stability proving elusive, Pakistan has fared no better on the economic front. Though the International Monetary Fund approved $12-billion disbursement under its existing Extended Fund Facility, there were stern strictures focusing on inadequate combating of corruption and inability to prevent siphoning of funds by business elites.

Embarrassingly for the military establishment, well-known US-based Pakistani-origin economist Atif Mian argued in his hard-hitting writeup (December 9), ‘Five for Fifty: Toward an economic vision for Pakistan’, that the average Pakistani could earn as much as any other citizen of the world for the next 50 years if only it sustains average per capita income growth of 5 per cent a year. He believes what has held Pakistan back is not a lack of talent or effort, but absence of a clear, sustained economic vision. The country needed a regime change to realise its potential, Atif wrote, qualifying that he meant this “not in political terms necessarily, but in strategic policy”.

Referring to the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which has failed to significantly open up foreign investment channels despite being under direct military supervision, Atif pointed out that Pakistan’s policy establishment still misunderstood what investment was, repeatedly mistaking inflows of borrowed dollars for growth-generating capital. The economic partnership with China had not been well-designed, he felt, built on technology transfer, skills and higher domestic productivity. Instead, policy leaned on fossil-fuel power plants, often in the wrong places and with high fixed and operating costs in dollars. This resulted “in a zombie power sector, which the government is now trying to rescue by taxing electricity!”

He lamented poor policy choices that had locked Pakistan into a stagnation regime, citing examples of “real-estate-driven elite capture, institutional support for negative-sum games of sectarianism”, even the “most recently appointed special czar for crypto!”

Meanwhile, after abolishing the post of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Munir has still not announced who will be promoted to the four-star slot of Commander, Strategic Forces. Among his most trusted lieutenants, Lt Gen Asim Malik, continues as DG, ISI, though his four-year term on this rank ended in October. Others from the 80th Pakistan Military Academy course batch of seniormost three-star Generals await this decision anxiously.