Munir’s rise and Pakistan’s geopolitical pivot

THE Islamabad peace talks have left the world in a state of flux; neither a breakthrough nor a breakdown. Both the US and Israel claim their military objectives against Iran have been achieved. Tehran is looking for trust with Washington, and respite.Field Marshal Asim Munir, a key architect of the talks, holds the rank of Cheif of Army Staff (COAS) and Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), combined. The CDF post is covered by the 27th Amendment of the Constitution which grants him an assured term till 2030 (the next elections are due in 2029) and a weakened judicial oversight. He has avoided repeating the mistake made by Gen Pervez Musharraf by not relinquishing the post of COAS.From the elite Frontier Force (Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw earned his spurs in FF regiment), Munir lacks the charisma, personality and flamboyance of Musharraf. He makes up for it through quiet perseverance and by being a Hafiz — someone who knows the Quran by heart, verse by verse. The military diplomacy skills he acquired as Defence Attaché in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Japan, combined with the political instincts and tradecraft that came with serving as DG ISI — an appointment both indispensable and often jinxed — worked in his favour.In 1999, when former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif wanted to appoint DG ISI Lt Gen Ziauddin Butt as COAS after sacking Gen Jehangir Karamat and overlooking Musharraf, he was dethroned by Musharraf who became COAS.In 2019, former PM Imran Khan replaced Munir as DG ISI and demoted him to Quarter Master General and appointed Lt Gen Faiz Hameed to the post. After Khan was vetoed out of power, PM Shehbaz Sharif appointed Munir as COAS, while Hameed, who had retired by then, was court-martialled and imprisoned.Munir's rise, ironically, emerged from Pakistan's military reasserting itself as a strong and capable fighting force in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor.US President Donald Trump is Munir's biggest fan. Munir has met him twice and broken bread once, a rare honour. Trump has called him "a great fighter", "a very important guy" and an "exceptional human being" and said meeting him "was an honour". No military officer has ever been lavished with such superlatives.Munir's back-up team is led by the DG ISI, Lt Gen Asim Malik, who is also the NSA. PM Shehbaz Sharif, and Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar provide the political and diplomatic cover. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is behind-the-scenes component of the Pakistan peace squad.Beijing is the biggest buyer of Iran's oil and gas. It has a $40-billion 25-year contract covering various sectors with Tehran. Munir's longstanding relationship and rapport with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (despite the first ever tit-for-tat airstrikes in 2024) and Trump's trust in him made Pakistan the most acceptable go-between.Pakistan is home to nearly 40 million Shia Muslims, the world's second-largest Shia population after Iran. Barring a brief period, Rawalpindi/ Islamabad have always supported the US and earned the non-NATO ally status. Beginning with the Baghdad pact in the 1950s, it facilitated the 1971 US-China rapprochement when the US provided military and diplomatic support to Pakistan in the war against India.Pakistan's commitments to the US culminated in Afghanistan, when it supported the US in countering the Soviet invasion. Later, it provided its airspace for the war against the Taliban and was the mediator during the Doha talks, which led to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.In the Arab world, Pakistan is often seen as a leading force in Islamic thought among GCC and OIC countries, with its nuclear capability — sometimes described as the "Islamic bomb" — serving as a source of leverage. The recent defence agreement with Saudi Arabia has notional commitments and except for a brigade of troops for defensive tasks, Islamabad did not provide air defence resources to Riyadh in the recent Gulf war.A squadron of F-16 jets was dispatched just before the ceasefire. A former Pakistan COAS, Gen Raheel Sharif, was appointed head of the 43-nation Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition in 2017. Despite its dire economic state — it has received its 25th IMF bailout — Pakistan has managed to survive.Trump required an off-ramp from what he thought would be a three-day war, which Iran extended to 40 days. Tehran too wished for de-escalation to save its infrastructure from annihilation. But here is the irony — Pakistan has established the image and status of a global mediator with active support from Turkiye in pushing this narrative. The transformation of a state sponsoring terrorism to one which is a peacemaker and a catalyst in conflict resolution is truly amazing.On the other hand, India's shrill drubbing of Pakistan as a terrorist state and refrain of 'terror and talks will not go together' are stuck in the same groove. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's latest description of Pakistan as a 'dalal' elicited a curt Pakistani response of 'sour grapes'. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh does not tire of threatening Islamabad with further changing its geography and history. But the ground reality has altered dramatically in Pakistan's favour and put Rawalpindi back into Washington's good books, with Munir the blue-eyed boy. Delhi is struggling to preserve its credibility and relevance with Trump, as its strategic autonomy and multi-alignment — without tangible leverage — underscore the need for a reset.Incidentally, the US Ambassador to India and Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor, has become India's trump card in redeeming strategic space.Orchestrating 21 hours of three rounds of talks, including the first face-to-face at the highest level since 1979, was no mean feat. US Vice-President JD Vance said: "We go back without a deal but with our best offer" — which is unknown. Both the US and Israel have claimed that their military objectives against Iran have been achieved. Netanyahu said: "Existential threat has been removed." Before the talks, Trump had said: "No matter what happens in Islamabad, we win." Though Iran did not need to declare victory, the importance of being Asim Munir was established.

Munir’s rise and Pakistan’s geopolitical pivot

The transformation of a state sponsoring terrorism to one which is a peacemaker and a catalyst in conflict resolution is truly amazing

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

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