NDA sweep leaves Opposition searching for answers

BIHAR handed over its best-ever mandate to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the worst-ever verdict to the Opposition's Mahagatbandhan (MGB) in the Assembly polls. For the BJP, which led the NDA, the victory was doubly sweet because it seemed to emerge as the single largest party in the Assembly for the first time, ahead of its long-time ally, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U).

The outcome tells its own story about the Opposition. In the Raghopur Assembly seat, Tejashwi Yadav, the scion of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) patriarch Lalu Prasad and who led the MGB, faced a nail-biting contest in his family stronghold, Raghopur. Tejashwi was projected as the Opposition's CM candidate. Since 1967, Raghopur had been won by one or the other socialist party and was wrested by the RJD in 1998. The JD(U) won in 2010, but in 2015 and 2020, Raghopur voted for Tejashwi. It was considered one of the RJD's safest seats. In fact, the INDIA bloc's tally has taken a bad hit.

Predictably, the MGB played on the "vote chori" (vote theft) slogan, coined by the Congress to encapsulate their charges of voters' exclusion in the ongoing revised electoral lists being drawn up by the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The Opposition accused the EC of not giving a level playing field. On the other hand, the BJP commended the smooth conduct of the elections and claimed there was not a single incident of violence leading to a recount.

Whatever the validity of the Opposition's charge and the BJP's claim, the MGB has plenty to introspect and reflect upon. While the BJP sorted out the MGB's housekeeping midway through the polls by naming the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar as its future CM candidate, the Congress was curiously reluctant to own up Tejashwi as its leader. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's "vote adhikar" (voting rights) yatra was intended to draw attention to the EC's alleged collusion with the Centre to disenfranchise bona fide voters, particularly in the MGB's strongholds. Tejashwi accompanied Rahul in his journey, but an impression was created and perpetuated the impression that the RJD scion would play second fiddle to the Congress leader. At no point did Rahul mention Tejashwi or the RJD, let alone declaring him the MGB's CM candidate.

Krishna Allavaru, former KPMG consultant and co-founder of Shaadis.com, was brought in as Rahul's principal strategist in Bihar. He was supposedly the mover and shaker behind the yatra and was against the projection of Tejashwi. When it came to ticket distribution, Allavaru demanded a "disproportionate" number of seats in relation to the party's ground strength and recent electoral performances. The Congress unilaterally announced its candidates in seats in the first phase of polling in which it was up against the RJD. The Congress dismissed the move as the staging of "friendly fights".

The state leaders protested Allavaru's decisions because eventually, Ashok Gehlot, the veteran leader from Rajasthan, was dispatched to sort out the mess with Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi. Allavaru was replaced by a more seasoned organisational hand, Avinash Pandey, but by then, the damage had been done. Tejashwi was eventually declared the MGB's CM face, but by then, he had already branched out on his own, conducting a campaign that focussed on the incumbent government's omissions and commissions and steering clear of "vote chori". Rahul was not seen in Bihar after the first foray. His sibling Priyanka Gandhi Vadra stepped in briefly to attack the EC again.

However, Tejashwi's campaign lacked the vigour and aggression on display in the 2020 polls. It appeared as though the promises he rolled out were part of the competitive politics he played with the JD(U) and lacked credibility. He promised a government job for every family, Rs 2,500 for every woman, a Rs-30,000 monthly salary to Jeevika Didis who are part of the Bihar Rural Livelihood Promotion Society, a one-time Rs-30,000 payment to women with potential for entrepreneurship and Rs 5 lakh interest-free loans to the deprived castes. None of them seem to have impacted the electorate.

Unlike the NDA, which despite the initial glitches eventually hung together as a coalition, the MGB pulled in different directions. The Vikassheel Insaan Party, helmed by Mukesh Sahani, a leader of the fishing community, was expected to get en bloc votes of the Mallahs, but it drew a blank. The Mallah votes went to the NDA.

The untested newbie founded by political strategist Prashant Kishor, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), was an object of immense interest. Kishor's reputation as adviser to the BJP, DMK, AAP and JD(U) preceded his political debut. For a while, he inundated social media with his addresses and interviews. He spoke the language of development and governance reforms and avoided mentioning caste and communalism. Kishor has been travelling in Bihar for over a year and had covered more districts than Rahul's yatra.

However, he seems to have faltered on a few counts. First, he announced he would contest from Raghopur — Tejashwi's seat. Then he backed off, maintaining that he had 243 seats to manage and couldn't afford to pin himself down on one place. Second, his choice of candidates was questioned. After stressing good, clean governance, he was accused of fielding persons with a dubious background. Third, his targets were not clear. He began by attacking the MGB and dredged up the "jungle raaj" label pinned on the RJD. Midway, he changed course and focussed on the NDA and PM Narendra Modi. By the time electioneering ended, the JSP had lost steam.

The Opposition's showing has put a question mark on its eligibility to claim an Opposition leader's post in the Assembly. Forget the JSP emerging as a third alternative; voters did not even seek a second option. It was the NDA all the way.