Of Lanka PM’s fate & whether it is poll-bound : The Tribune India

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Of Lanka PM’s fate & whether it is poll-bound

In his landmark interview to the Sunday Times, Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena gave several reasons for sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe — misgovernance, downslide in economy, central bank bonds scandal and most significantly, UNF minister Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka's alleged involvement in a plot to assassinate him and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.

Of Lanka PM’s fate & whether it is poll-bound

Eyes on court: Judgment on the MPs’ plea over PM is likely on December 7.



Maj-Gen Ashok Mehta (retd)
Former GOC, IPKF, Sri Lanka

In his landmark interview to the Sunday Times, Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena gave several reasons for sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe — misgovernance, downslide in economy, central bank bonds scandal and most significantly, UNF minister Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka's alleged involvement in a plot to assassinate him and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa. He added that he would never make Wickremesinghe Prime Minister again, confessing that Mahinda Rajapaksa was only his third choice in selection of Prime Minister, the other two being Speaker Karu Jayasuriya and Sajith Premadasa. Sri Lanka has been embroiled in the biggest and longest constitutional crisis in its history. Reason: the presidential ambitions of at least three persons — Sirisena, Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe. 

One month after Sirisena triggered the parliamentary impasse, all eyes and ears are on the Supreme Court which is to give its judgment on December 7 on the presidential gazette notification which prorogued parliament, appointed Rajapaksa Prime Minister and ordered fresh elections for January 7. Earlier, the court had stayed the suspension of parliament even as Sirisena had rejected the two no-confidence motions against the Rajapaksa government by 122 lawmakers, saying that due process was not followed. Still, parliament released Hansards with records of both no-confidence motions recording that there is no legitimate government in the country. De facto, if not de jure (or neither), there are two contending prime ministers with a dubious standstill arrangement in place till at least December 7. Keen to exploit its popularity in sweeping local elections in February 2018, Rajapaksa is demanding early elections while Wickremesinghe's UNF, TNA and JVP are asking for status quo ante October 26.

On November 23, 122 MPs opposed to the Rajapaksa government filed cases in court, challenging Rajapaksa to prove under what authority he holds office without majority in parliament. The current situation is more than bizarre. Sirisena has chosen as Prime Minister his presidential rival in the 2015 elections, whom he had accused of attempting a coup, widespread corruption and even of plotting to assassinate him. "This meeting of North and South Poles is the wickedest cohabitation anywhere," noted a Sri Lankan academic who preferred anonymity.

Defeating two-term President Rajapaksa in the 2015 elections was a more difficult operation than vanquishing the LTTE. The plan was masterminded by former President Chandrika Kumaratunga whose dislike of Wickremesinghe is legendary. Like Prime Ministers in Pakistan, Wickremesinghe has never had an uninterrupted tenure in his four terms as Prime Minister since 1983. Patching together opposites Sirisena and Wickremesinghe to oust Rajapaksa was a coup. Now, seeing it come apart is an immense body blow to Kumaratunga. Reacting to the turn of events, she accused Sirisena of betrayal by once again joining hands with a political group (led by Rajapaksa) that destroyed democracy…and built a destructive network of graft and corruption. The National Unity Government (NUG) of rival parties SLFP and UNP is history.

Being unable to prove its majority in the House, the unholy alliance of Sirisena and Rajapaksa is filibustering proceedings in parliament to force an early election. The President's interview, in which he has said that he will never appoint Wickremesinghe Prime Minister, leaves him vulnerable to the option of a possible reinstatement of Wickremesinghe by the Supreme Court as Sirisena had earlier said he would abide by the verdict of the court. The life of the current House is till April 2020 and presidential elections are due only in January 2020. 

Meanwhile, former Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera has said that the country is on the brink of economic anarchy with the Sri Lankan rupee plunging to an all-time low of 180 to the dollar. 

On December 7, a seven-member Bench of the Supreme Court not wishing to prolong the political impasse is likely to give a ruling. Of the two alliances now feasible — Sirisena-Rajapaksa and Sirisena-Wickremesinghe — the first, though replete with contradictions is likely to prove more stable than the second. This consists of one bona fide pro-China player with the second not loath to joining the bandwagon. The pro-India Wickremesinghe with tested credentials had angered Sirisena by allotting a strategic project to India, the berth and jetty in Colombo Harbour that did not please China. With a majority of MPs in the House challenging the Sirisena-appointed, Rajapaksa-led government in court, the fate of the new governing alliance is held by a slender thread. Should the court rule in favour of the ousted Wickremesinghe government, will Sirisena have to eat his words? Or will Wickremesinghe be prepared to pass the baton on to junior colleague Sajith from the illustrious Premadasa family? Or someone Wickremesinghe nominates?

With the regime change in the Maldives, India is likely to recover some strategic space lost to China, but in Sri Lanka, it is on a slippery slope.

Three scenarios could play out by possible  Supreme Court judgments. 

One, status quo ante October 26 —restoration of Wickremesinghe as PM. 

Two, approval of Sirisena's appointment of Rajapaksa as PM, but striking down elections on January 7. 

Three, same as scenario two, but holding elections. 

The Supreme Court will hear the petitions on November 30 and December 4, 5 and 6 and, is likely, give a judgment on December 7. All eyes are on the Supreme Court.

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