Sasikala meets her fate

S Nihal Singh

IN a sense, the political crisis in Tamil Nadu is over; in another way, the swearing in of VK Sasikala’s chosen man, Eddapadi K Palaniswami, as Chief Minister is the opening shot in a long churning process. Indeed, Bollywood has been bettered in the melodramatic manner the story has developed, with Sasikala in jail in Bengaluru after the Supreme Court found her guilty in the disproportionate assets case, with her nephew holding the fort in the AIADMK and a majority of MLAs, sequestered in a remote resort, supporting her.

 In immediate terms, the caretaker CM, Mr O Panneerselvam, has lost out, but despite Ms Sasikala’s plan to exercise power by remote control through her nephew, the void left behind by Jayalalithaa will not be easy to fill. The ambivalence of the AIADMK party cadres over Sasikala’s credentials persists and can be exploited by her opponents in the party to pose two kinds of challenges: a split or a change of guard.

 Jayalalithaa’s contribution to her state was two-fold. She brought political stability while giving freebies as state largesse and accentuated regional identity. It took her time to consolidate her power after skirmishes with the family of the party founder, MG Ramachandran. Inevitably, the effectiveness of Sasikala’s remote control mechanism of the state government will have its limitations.

 The national focus will remain on the future shape of relations between states and the Centre, and Tamil Nadu, in view of its size and importance, will play a central role in defining it. In managing the political picture, caste considerations will play their role, as in most parts of the country, but Dravidian sensitivities are important for the Centre to placate.

As Ms Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is keenest to point out, India’s is a semi-federal Constitution. The series of discussions between the Centre and states on GST brought out the tensions that exist ultimately resolved by compromises. But the BJP coming to power under its own steam at the Centre after more than three decades of coalitions is re-testing the parameters of the quasi-federal system.

Tamil Nadu’s quest is a complicated one because of its tradition of leaving the state’s destiny to one supreme leader. There have been tall leaders in the Congress era, but the somewhat new twist to the tale is the tradition of larger-than-life personalities, usually of the matinee idol variety, taking over the state with few questions asked. By this criterion, Mr Palaniswami is unlikely to measure up.

To begin with, the combustible caste compulsions must be taken into account ever as Mr Panneerselvam has his own caste flock to guard and appease. Interestingly, the state Governor, Mr C Vijayasagar Rao, reviled by sections of the AIADMK for his measured response, has emerged with honours after waiting for the Supreme Court verdict and acting reasonably swiftly by inviting Mr Palanaswami.

This is, of course, one side of the story because politics in the state is churning. By and large, the main opposition party, the DMK, has acted with moderation in the hope that Jayalalithaa’s removal from the scene and Ms Sasikala’s overambition will help to destroy the AIADMK, with Stalin, the  heir apparent, reaping the rewards. His father, K Karunanidhi, is keeping indifferent health. While other outsiders are tempted to try their luck to fill the void, there have been no definitive moves.

 However, in important respects the Tamil Nadu experience has taken the role of dynasties and their hangers-on a stage further. Ms Sasikala’s claim to fame is that she served her mistress Jayalalithaa for decades with devotion while enriching herself, as the Supreme Court ruled. Over her long apprenticeship, she learned the art of pulling the right strings she put to good use by having herself proclaimed the party general secretary, a powerful position in the AIADMK hierarchy only to find herself disqualified from running for elected office for six years after her release. Although many complain about the slow pace of justice delivered, it does catch up with offenders sometimes.

 In death, Jayalalithaa evaded the harsh judgment of the Supreme Court, which principally applied to her, although she did do time in prison, with Sasikala keeping her company. In the 10 years it will take Sasikala to run for office under the law, there will be a sea change in Tamil Nadu and the country.

In the run-up to the verdict, the role of the BJP and the Centre has been under the scanner, with suggestions that they favoured the outsider as being more sympathetic to their ways. But the BJP is a marginal factor in the state, unlike the Congress which had ruled the state for long until the Dravidian parties swept the polls.

Events will determine who will have the last laugh. Mr Panneerselvam is hoping that with the sequestered MLAs out of their confined surroundings, some more MLAs will come to his side. But the Assembly has more than four years to run and there is thus little incentive for them to cross over.

 Ultimately, it will depend upon the tensions between the party cadres and Sasikala’s loyalists. Her great regret is that she was denied the chief ministership by the verdict and while placing proxies in positions of power, she had little time to legitimise herself in the eyes of the people.

The wider public in the country will look askance at the games played by those close to power for their own enrichment. Sasikala is not the only politician or political aide to try to enrich herself only to fall by the stern judgment of the Supreme Court. Nor will she be the last.

It is hardly likely that by making an example of her, the Supreme Court will discourage others from indulging in making illegal gains. But it is just as well that the guilty are punished even after long delays.