The lengthening shadows

THE visit of the UAE President to New Delhi and his talks with our PM are like a fresh wind blowing after the frosty climate that has been prevailing in our neighbourhood. Now one looks forward to the “mother of all deals” being finalised with the European Union (EU), hopefully by Republic Day, giving an impetus to our relations with the EU.

The need for expanding bilateral ties and free trade agreements is becoming even more important, considering the transition to a new world order that we are witnessing. The US has increasingly become protectionist and challenged much that was a given in the old order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said as much during his recent visit to China while formulating a trade agreement with the Chinese. The need for defence/security agreements and trade alliances becomes more imperative as the powers inimical to us have not been sitting idle.

It is important that some soul-searching be done by the powers that be. Has the mere fact that our economy is much larger and the trade we do much greater, that has led to a feeling of our invincibility over our neighbour? It must be asked why the Pakistani military establishment is felicitated at the White House, the Pentagon, in Beijing, Riyadh, Ankara, etc.

Pakistan has been given economic and military aid by China. The Chinese weaponry was on display during the Op Sindoor conflict last year, even though our two-way trade with China amounts to more than $150 billion; Pakistan-China trade is $15-20 billion. But they have the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), which is the gateway to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to the Middle East and Europe through the Gwadar port.

The Shaksgam valley (in PoK), which was ceded by Pakistan to the Chinese (which we dispute), and through which a branch of the Karakoram highway passes (essential part of BRI), shows the strategic bonhomie enjoyed by both countries. We, on the other hand, have border disputes with the Chinese — they claim parts of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Thus, we can expect that economic and military support will continue to flow into the Pakistani arsenal.

Furthermore, Pakistan has sealed a security pact with the Saudis which assures it of help when needed. In a new triad being proposed, Turkey is expected to join Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in a mini-NATO-type arrangement. Do remember that during the India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, it was Turkey that sent a warship to show solidarity, while its drones were also allegedly used. Again, Indian-Saudi trade is upwards of $40 billion, whereas Pak-Saudi trade is a mere $5 billion…yet they have a security pact.

Pakistan has for long provided troops to the Saudis for their security needs and it is important to take cognisance of the fact that our neighbour is the only Islamic nation with nuclear capabilities. Considering the strikes on Qatar by Israel and on Iran by the US last year, it appears that the security pact among Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has geopolitical compulsions.

As per a recent article published by Al Jazeera, Pakistan is selling JF-17 fighter jets to countries in Asia and Africa. The jets are jointly manufactured by China and Pakistan, and the latest Block 3 variant is classified as a 4.5-generation fighter. With a relatively low price tag of $25-30 million, it is regarded as an attractive option by many air forces. Given that there are geopolitical forces at play that tend to dominate a mere trading relationship, we might find ourselves increasingly isolated unless we initiate a vigorous, proactive policy.

The US continues to be the elephant in the room, and the elephant has recently again started looking kindly towards Islamabad. To further complicate matters, the threat of higher US tariffs and sanctions looms over our heads. This has resulted in the slowing down of not only our exports but also oil imports from Russia.

Russia remains entangled with Ukraine; it doesn’t help our cause that it is our major weapons supplier and is currently committed to its own needs. The threat of US sanctions is forcing us to exit from the deal with Iran, which had enabled us to develop and use the Chabahar port, and it will further stop the remaining trade with Iran which had been emasculated by earlier sanctions. Iran has traditionally been one of our large trading partners. This port would have given us access to Iran and Central Asia. As per recent reports, the port’s future is being discussed with the US.

Lastly, the perennial question of Kashmir is always there. Pakistan, supported by China, is ever on the lookout for an opportunity to change the status quo. We cannot write off its assertions and claims as daydreams. China is upgrading civilian military infrastructure along the borders, be it forward airbases or roads, as are we, but the scale is different.

The changed political situation in Bangladesh has made matters more complicated; their senior leaders are openly calling for cutting off the North-East from the rest of the country. The fact that Manipur continues to burn and the Nagaland problem remains unresolved leaves our North-East vulnerable and exposed to mischief. Ladakh is also in ferment, and like Manipur, it needs a quick resolution.

If Russia is incapable of helping its allies and the US non-committal, whom will we look to for aid? This is the time for astute diplomacy to forestall any further joining of forces against us.

We conduct a large quantum of trade with China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, etc. We should build upon this for our strategic aims as all major powers have used trade as a strategic tool. A strong foreign policy must be based on the foundation of a strong, united nation.

It is for the national leadership to ensure that they unite us, and this unity is not eroded due to our own mistakes and selfish goals. There should be good working relations between the Centre and the states. In all important matters, the Centre should take the states into consideration and coalesce their leadership to join in national efforts. This strategy has worked very well in all our internal security problems. India’s economic success arouses the envy and enmity of our neighbours and thus it is imperative that we pay far greater attention to our security and to forging strategic alliances.