The need for balance

THE assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in June 1914 is considered one of the pivotal incidents leading to the start of the First World War. The primary underlying cause of the war was that the ‘Central Powers’ (Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire) were late to embark on worldwide imperial expansion and colonisation which was dominated by the UK and France.

Germany, under Kaiser Wilhelm II, had ambitions to set up an empire, and this led to tensions and conflict. The rest, as they say, is history. The total military and civilian casualties are estimated at 15-22 million in the war which lasted four years (1914-18). Hostilities ended formally with the signing of the Treaty of Versailles. But alas, human memory is intemperate, for not a year goes by when violence does not visit some corner of the globe.

As in the case of individuals, poor countries do not fight each other, except in a few cases where development is still at the tribal stage. It is the wealthy, developed, militarily strong countries which either fight each other or try to colonise poor but resource-rich nations. Religion and race also play an important role, usually not upfront but under some disguise. How much land does a man or a country need? Is it ever enough, or is it that the more powerful you grow, the greater is your appetite?

After World War I, Germany, Japan and Italy (the Axis powers, as they came to be known) gradually developed into powerful nations with large resources of their own, but they sought to conquer Europe, North Africa, the Pacific Islands and Asia. Powerful countries need to be on the move, the status quo is never enough: more land, more resources, more wealth to be looted, more men and women need to be enslaved. This led to the Second World War and the loss of millions of lives and destruction of cities and countries…the losses in WWII were far greater than those in WWI.

Today, the race is for securing rare earth minerals, supply chains and end-to-end value chain of mining these minerals, processing them and then manufacturing magnets. The vast economies of the US and China need them, just as they need more energy to run their massive data centres. Everything is valued in terms of GDP growth, so companies need to grow and the competition is intense and cut-throat. What begins with private industry spills over into the political arena and soon enough the armies are engaged.

From the “cutting of the Chinese Melon” to the “scramble for Africa”, history is replete with examples of the great powers dividing the economies and resources of weaker nations to fulfil their own needs. Russia, which has limitless land, wants Ukraine, which it lost with the collapse of the USSR. Ukraine is rich in terms of its people, its land, nuclear resources and access to the sea, and Russia wants it. The opportunity to attack came in anticipation of NATO expanding its influence to Russia’s borders via Ukraine. NATO also sees the same opportunity in Ukraine and wants to divide its resources, with the Americans clearly asking for war compensation. The old song and dance of war is the result.

Venezuela, with its vast oil reserves, was easy pickings for the US. Cuba and Greenland are next on the list. It’s no secret that Israel wants to reshape the Middle East, while Iran has its own plan. As in the case of Russia launching a pre-emptive strike against Ukraine, the Americans and Israelis launched an all-out attack on Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear bomb and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The Gulf states, rich in oil money, are beholden to the US for protection and are therefore suffering as collateral damage, just as the global economy is suffering due to Iran’s asymmetrical warfare and response.

In the past, hope came after the dust of war settled with treaties and organisations: the UN, founded as the successor to the League of Nations, was created to primarily maintain international peace and security; the World Bank Group (originally International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) was established to help redevelop Europe and Japan after WWII; the WTO (originally GATT, General Treaty on Tariffs & Trade) was designed to reduce trade barriers; the International Monetary Fund was created to ensure the stability of the international monetary system; the WHO’s objective was to coordinate international public health; UNICEF, UNESCO, etc., I could go on — organisations and institutions through which the leadership of the time sought to mend the injuries and errors of the past.

Great leadership was also found — Harry S. Truman implemented the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe and led the US after the Second World War. Britain’s Winston Churchill not only led during the war but was critical in forming the post-war order, including coining the term ‘Iron Curtain’. Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic and transformed France from a defeated nation into a dominant European power. Joseph Stalin led the USSR in becoming a superpower, besides its post-war reconstruction and the establishment of the Eastern Bloc.

Their political leanings were diverse, but they were great leaders for their nations. Today, the world seems to have regressed to the early 20th century, with leaders openly talking of ‘taking’ and ‘destroying’ countries — where exactly is the moral compass of our time?

Most of the organisations mentioned above have been allowed to decay over time and are today skeletons and mere shadows of their former selves. The US displays total hegemony and refuses to acknowledge even its own age-old allies in NATO. Global trade agreements are a thing of the past, with the US unilaterally imposing tariffs and individual nations forming trade alliances to survive. China and Russia are marching to their own drumbeat, carving out pieces of the globe for their profit. Then there are the technology oligarchs with unimaginable funds and resources at their disposal to implement their personal vision… power is concentrated in the hands of a few like never before, and as Lord Acton said, “power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. The list of names in the Epstein files clearly demonstrates moral bankruptcy. Balance across nations needs to be restored.

As the great powers play their games, they will suck other nations into the whirlpool of war. It is time for us to find our own strategic direction keeping our old allies in mind and also forming new alliances to secure the nation. India has always punched above its weight in shaping international opinion and direction. Today, we need to find our voice of balance and moral integrity and ensure that it resonates both internally and in our foreign relations. This is critical in order to navigate through these troubled times as we are threatened both economically and in our internal/external security by regional conflict and war.