Trial by fire for Bangladesh

BANGLADESH goes to the polls today — for the second time in two years. The January 2024 elections were practically a sham presided over by then PM Sheikh Hasina, but there is some hope that things will be different this time. The last year and a half has been quite eventful for this vulnerable nation — the July 2024 uprising, Hasina’s ouster and escape to India, her old rival Khaleda Zia’s demise, the homecoming of the latter’s son Tarique Rahman after a long exile in the UK.

The February 12 parliamentary elections have been described as a “historic, decisive and future-defining moment” by Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate who is heading the interim government. After years of disputed polls, shrinking democratic space and deepening polarisation, Bangladeshis are being asked to decide whether their country can undergo a democratic revival and build institutions that serve all citizens, not just those in power.

At the same time, voters are weighing in on a referendum proposing significant reforms: term limits for the prime minister, stronger checks on executive authority and constitutional safeguards to prevent the consolidation of power. Taken together, these measures promise to herald Naya Bangladesh, if everything falls into place.

The challenge for the interim administration is to ensure free, fair, credible and peaceful polls. The presence of hundreds of international observers and foreign journalists shows that Bangladesh is drawing global attention. Compared to previous elections since 2008 — some of which were boycotted or criticised as deeply flawed — this expanded international scrutiny is intended to reassure voters and investors alike.

For more than a decade, Opposition parties and human rights groups accused the Hasina government of manipulating elections, silencing critics and narrowing political space. The Awami League’s absence from the current contest and the death penalty awarded to Hasina in absentia over alleged crimes against humanity have turned the page on a controversial era. But these developments also raise an uncomfortable question: are these elections a genuine break from the politics of exclusion or simply old wine in a new bottle?

Encouragingly, election campaigning has seen visible efforts to enforce rules, particularly the distinctive black-and-white posters at public places across Dhaka. This symbolises commitment — however tentative — to procedural fairness.

The re-emergence of dynastic politics has complicated the narrative of renewal. Bangladeshi politics has long revolved around two families/parties: Hasina’s Awami League and the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now helmed by Tarique Rahman. With the Awami League out of the picture, the BNP is the obvious frontrunner. Rahman has vowed to restore democratic institutions and revive the economy. He has also sought the support of all stakeholders to build a prosperous and safe nation.

Islamist forces are also reshaping the political landscape, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami, which was banned under Hasina but has regained influence. Now part of a broader coalition, Jamaat is keen to expand its role in national politics. For a section of the voters, this phenomenon represents a legitimate expression of political diversity after years of repression. For others — especially women and religious minorities — it is a harbinger of greater anxiety and insecurity.

Perhaps the most hopeful sign is the importance of young voters. Nearly 5 million citizens are voting for the first time. Students had spearheaded the uprising that toppled Hasina’s government. The question now is whether all that youthful energy can evolve into sustained democratic engagement. Public wrath can overthrow autocrats; rebuilding a democratic framework requires patience as well as compromise.

Globally, Bangladesh’s trajectory matters a lot. As one of South Asia’s most populous nations and a key player in regional economics and geopolitics, its stability — or lack of it — affects neighbouring India and beyond. A credible election could enhance Bangladesh’s standing and attract investment at a time when economic revival is urgently needed. Conversely, a contested or exclusionary outcome would risk renewed unrest and diplomatic strain.

India remains non-committal on Hasina’s extradition, which is a knotty bilateral issue, but it has reached out to the BNP. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended Khaleda’s funeral in December and handed over PM Narendra Modi’s letter of condolence to Tarique Rahman. Considering that Delhi-Dhaka relations had come under strain during Khaleda’s tenure, India would be keen to make a fresh start if Rahman comes to power. Delhi also has to contend with the machinations of Islamabad, which is going all out to win over Dhaka, notwithstanding the historical baggage of 1971.

The US and China are among the other key stakeholders. According to the US Ambassador to Dhaka, Brent T Christensen, America is concerned about China’s expanding presence in South Asia and is planning to offer defence systems to Bangladesh’s next government as alternatives to Chinese equipment. Moreover, Bangladesh has secured a reduced 19 per cent tariff under a trade agreement with the US.

For the moment, Bangladesh must put its best foot forward. If the election mandate spurs transparency, accountability and genuine reform, it could mark the birth of a resilient democracy. However, if things go wrong, it will only deepen the divide and signal the start of another disturbing chapter for the trouble-torn nation.