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Trump’s migrant crackdown sparks trade wars

The Indo-US ties are critical and after the long period of downturn in 2024 under the Biden administration, the Modi government is keen to strengthen ties with the US under Trump.
Getting tough: Citing national security concerns due to illegal immigration, Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Reuters
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Four days after his second inauguration, US President Donald Trump signed the Laken Riley Act. It provides for the arrest, detention and deportation of illegal immigrants charged with minor crimes, such as minor theft, shoplifting, assault or bodily injuries to another person, without waiting for a conviction by a legal court. The signing of this Bill reflects the hardening of sentiments among certain sections of the American people whose votes had steered Trump to victory in the recent presidential elections.

Among the measures that Trump has taken to crack down on the undocumented migrants in the US is the provision of military aircraft to deport thousands of arrested migrants. Additionally, 1,500 troops have been deployed on the US-Mexico border to monitor the incoming illegal migrants and install barriers to stop them.

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Also, the entry of undocumented migrants to the US has been suspended, their right to seek asylum tightened and the powers of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement personnel to arrest and detain the illegal migrants on the US soil expanded.

On February 1, Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada (10 per cent tariffs on import of Canadian Energy) and Mexico, citing national security concerns due to illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly of fentanyl.

The accusations against Mexico are that its government provides safe havens to powerful drug cartels involved in the manufacture and transportation of dangerous narcotics. The Chinese goods will face 10 per cent tariffs as "China allows the transnational criminal organisations to engage in money-laundering activities which finance the drug trafficking networks."

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The Trump administration has said that unrestricted access to the US market is a privilege and leveraging tariffs is a powerful tool it would use to compel foreign governments to take stronger actions against illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

Canada, Mexico and China have stated that their governments have taken meaningful actions to stop illegal migration and drug trafficking and they are willing to discuss further coordinated actions with the US government.

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has announced retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent tariffs on US imports worth $30 billion immediately and $130 billion in 21 days.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has ordered her Economy Minister to implement tariff and non-tariff measures against the US to defend her country's interests. She has denied the slander made by Washington that her government was working in an alliance with the drug trafficker cartels. She clarified that they had seized 20 million doses of fentanyl and detained one lakh persons tied to drug trafficking.

China has deplored the US tariffs and said that it would take necessary countermeasures, including complaining to the WTO against the wrong US practices.

While Trump's policies primarily target illegal immigrants from Canada, Mexico and Central American countries, there are reportedly about 7,25,000 undocumented Indians in the USA, mainly from Punjab and Gujarat, and the Indians comprised about 3 per cent of all illegal border crossings in the US in 2024.

The Indian government has clarified that it does not support illegal immigration anywhere and it would accept any illegal immigrants proven to be Indians. After a phone call with PM Modi on January 27, 2025, Trump said India would do "what is right on the deportation of the illegal immigrants."

On the issue of H1B visas, there are differing views among Trump's core supporters. While the big business represented by Tesla owner and important Trump supporter Elon Musk favours the continuation of the H1B programme as it fosters innovation and excellence, others like Steve Bannon oppose it as it takes away jobs from the Americans.

As the highly qualified foreign immigrants bring rich skills which are different from those of the natives and help create new businesses, jobs and increased consumption, the Trump administration is yet to order any major change in this programme.

Since the Indians accounted for about 72 per cent of the H1B visas in 2023, any important changes could significantly impinge on them.

The Indo-US relationship is critical and after the long period of downturn in 2024 under the Biden administration, the Modi government is keen to strengthen ties with the US under Trump. The US remains a preferred partner for sourcing investment, critical and emerging technologies, new supply chains and new generation of military equipment.

The initial signals indicate that the Trump administration has also abandoned support to Khalistani elements in the USA and Canada and interference in India's internal affairs on human rights and other issues.

There is also broad convergence of views on Quad's role in maintaining independence and freedom of navigation and transportation and trade in the Indo-Pacific and China's interference in the internal affairs of its neighbours.

India differs with Trump on issues relating to investment, defence purchases, trade deficit, tariffs and visa issues as Trump wants important companies to manufacture in the USA or face tariffs and India wants to buy more defence equipment from her.

India has been making efforts to expand its own manufacturing base for semi-conductors, solar equipment, fighter jets, infantry vehicles, small atomic reactors and other equipment.

India will try its best to bridge the differences with the Trump administration on these issues and also ascertain its views on important political issues during PM Modi's forthcoming visit to the USA this month.

Meanwhile, India has taken pre-emptive action to create a congenial atmosphere by reducing the customs duties on Harley Davidson motorcycles and Tesla cars. India could also buy some crude oil and defence supplies from the USA to reduce the trade deficit. It will keenly watch how the US courts deal with Trump's orders on the deportation of illegal immigrants and the changes in the H1B visa programme.

Given its support for the Indian diaspora, the Modi government would intervene wherever necessary, though the space for remedial action with President Trump is narrow.

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