What to expect in case of a Biden presidency

It should be a sobering thought that in the Biden calculus, India does not figure in the top priorities of US foreign policies, leave alone as a ‘counterweight’ to China. India’s grim struggle with the pandemic, with no light at the end of the tunnel, doesn’t present an inspiring picture. Suffice to say, our chatter that Trump deployed US carrier strike groups in the South China Sea to deter Chinese moves in Ladakh becomes laughable.

A pragmatist: Biden’s agenda of economic recovery provides an opening to China.

MK Bhadrakumar

Former Ambassador

The suggestion of US President Donald Trump last Thursday to delay the November presidential election reinforces a perception that presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is stealing a march over him. This election is going down to the wire. A potential Biden victory electrifies American politics.

The draft 2020 Democratic Party Platform, released recently, has received worldwide attention. Election manifestos do not necessarily translate as policies, but Biden is a quintessential consensus maker. Biden’s primary focus is on forging ‘a new social and economic contract with the American people.’ Simply put, this means the creation of millions of new jobs, ‘shared prosperity’, closing racial gaps in income and wealth, guaranteed healthcare, increased wages, right to form unions, affordable college education, cleaner environment and so on.

In foreign policy, the Platform underscores that defence expenditure should be reduced and diplomacy would be ‘our tool of first resort’ where allies and partners need to be mobilised ‘to meet the tests that none of us can meet on our own’.

Unsurprisingly, the Covid-19 pandemic receives much attention, being the iceberg on which Trump’s ship has capsized. The Platform harks back to Obama’s ‘disciplined American diplomacy’ that shaped and led a common global response in past global health crises such as the Ebola epidemic over which Washington and Beijing closely collaborated.

The US will not only return to the WHO but also ‘fully resource’ that organisation. Again, the US will rejoin the UNHRC and the Paris Accord over climate change (where China will be a key partner); end the ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan; rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and engage with Tehran; and, work on arms control agreements. What affects India most will be the US’ Asia-Pacific strategy.

Interestingly, the Platform altogether dispenses with the code expression ‘Indo-Pacific’, which the Modi and Trump administrations lustily flaunted to get under China’s skin. It ignores Quad, too. India gets a brief reference in the narrative on Asia-Pacific policy as if an afterthought: ‘And, we will continue to invest in our strategic partnership with India — the world’s largest democracy, a nation of great diversity, and a growing Asia-Pacific power.’ The Platform flags Japan, South Korea and Australia as Washington’s key allies, and invokes the ASEAN.

Clearly, a Democratic administration will resolutely counter China. Differences are many — trade practices, subsidies, intellectual property rights, currency exchange rate, Chinese military’s ‘intimidation’ in South China Sea, Xinjiang, Hong Kong’s autonomy. The US will be ‘clear, strong and consistent in pushing back’ at China’s actions in areas where ‘profound economic, security and human rights concerns’ are involved. Washington will ‘rally friends and allies across the world to push back’ against China’s attempts to ‘undermine international norms.’

Having said that, the US will not take recourse to ‘self-defeating, unilateral tariff wars, or fall into the trap of a new Cold War.’ While pushing back at China’s ‘malign behaviour’, the US will also be ‘pursuing cooperation on issues of mutual interest’ like climate change and non-proliferation, taking care that the rivalry ‘does not put global stability at risk’.

The Platform says, “We believe Europe is our natural partner in managing areas of cooperation with China and will work to establish common priorities, strategies, and tools.” Indeed, Biden will regard the trans-Atlantic alliance as the ‘ballast of our global influence… crucial to addressing almost every global challenge we face.’ In sum, Washington will harmonise with the EU’s commitment to engage with China to mutual benefit.

Trump attacks Biden for being ‘soft’ on China; unsurprisingly, the Democratic Platform cannot but rebut this allegation. However, Biden also has a reputation for being a pragmatist. The prioritisation of economic recovery in Biden’s agenda provides an opening to Beijing. The US and EU are grappling with the pandemic. Whereas China’s economy is already on track to recoup its losses by the end of the year, faster than any other major economy, its year-on-year GDP growth is expected to reach five-six per cent in the second half of the year. The geopolitical significance of the Chinese economy leading the world economy out of the ravages of Covid-19 must be understood.

All in all, it should be a sobering thought that in the Biden calculus, India does not figure in the top priorities of US foreign policies, leave alone as a ‘counterweight’ to China. India’s grim struggle with the pandemic, with no light at the end of the tunnel, doesn’t present an inspiring picture. Suffice to say, our chatter that Trump deployed US carrier strike groups in the South China Sea to deter Chinese moves in Ladakh, becomes laughable.

Biden is shifting from Trump’s focus from the rivalries in the South China Sea to take a 360-degree view of the US’ rivalry as of global reach, which can only be addressed comprehensively and through engagement, eschewing confrontation, together with America’s western allies.

Equally, the Platform’s emphasis on democratic values, pluralism, freedom of the press, religious tolerance and human rights comes out clearly and it grates on India’s political economy. The Platform doesn’t mince words that the US will crack the whip even on close allies such as Saudi Arabia. It hardly helps that the growing image of India is of a land of religious bigotry where authoritarianism is on the rise. Meanwhile, our collusion with Trump — Howdy Modi, Namaste Trump —would also have generated a blowback.

It is perceptible that the Democratic Party, on a historic shift toward the left of the political spectrum, is scripting an agenda riveted on the dispossessed American people’s yearning for empowerment, justice, equality and inclusiveness, and promising them a compassionate and responsive government — in a way, the antithesis of today’s India.