Which way has high voter turnout in MP gone?

Rasheed Kidwai
Senior journalist & author

The high voter turnout of 74.85 per cent in Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections has baffled both the BJP and the Congress. During the 2013 state polls, the poll percentage was 72.66. The Election Commission sources say 74.85 per cent is actually a provisional figure and that the final figure could rise to 76 per cent. 

The Congress is claiming victory, attributing the high turnout to be a firm indicator of anti-incumbency, while the ruling BJP views it as a 'sure' sign of voters’ faith in the 'tried and trusted' leadership of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and his organisational capacity to mobilise voters. 

On the day of polling, the BJP had a front page advertisement asking the voters to ensure "90 per cent" polling. The otherwise innocuous plea had a subtext and a message for the voters to give a "befitting" reply to Madhya Pradesh Congress committee chief Kamal Nath. During the poll campaign, a video showed him asking a group of Muslim clerics to ensure 90 per cent voting in Muslim-dominated areas to secure victory for the Congress in MP. In spite of being a conservative state, MP has no record of drastic communal polarisation. It remains to be seen whether  concealed and not-so-concealed efforts to garner voters in the name of religion would bring dividends on December 11 when the counting of votes will take place. 

Another video featuring octogenarian BJP leader Babulal Gaur is in circulation that has the former chief minister congratulating a local Congress leader for a ministerial slot in the 'new government,' hours after the polling in the state. Gaur, winner of 10 Assembly polls, is considered an astute weathercock. His daughter-in-law Krishna contested polls in his Govindpura seat that saw Gaur, 89, extensively campaigning for him. 

Congress is upbeat

The Congress has reasons to be confident. Indore's satta market has its own way of seat-wise calculations, giving Congress a clear majority. A section of senior Congress leaders feel 'satories' (punters) who are instinctively anti-Congress, have no reason to lose money on a party that they do not back intuitively.  

Out of 3.77 crore or 74.85 per cent of voters who exercised their right to franchise, about 70 per cent are from rural areas. This huge voting pattern, perhaps, indicates the farmers' anger against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan regime. 

The farmers' unrest roiled MP so much so that eight farmers were killed in a police firing in June 2017 in Mandsaur. Most farm organisations and leaders have been demanding loan waivers and government guarantees for higher crop prices. The Congress has promised to waive loan within 10 days and higher crop prices. 

BJP counting on Chouhan 

It is true that Chouhan has won many laurels, including the 'Krishi Karman' award five times from the union government, including the Manmohan Singh regime. Agriculture production in Madhya Pradesh shows an extremely uneven pattern as out of 52 districts, 15 from the prosperous Malwa region contribute over 50 per cent of output. Many marginal farmers in Bundelkhand, the Chambal-Gwalior region and in Vindhya pradesh face acute hardship due to small landholdings, farm labourers turning into migrant labourers and irrigation infrastructure. 

As per one estimate, over 32 lakh farmers are in debt in MP. On an average, each farmer in the state is under a debt of Rs 14,128. In 2017, bumper crops saw a glut in the prices of tomato, onion and potato, leading to distress sales. Many small and marginal farmers in MP continue to grapple with loss-making prices for their farm produce, mounting loans (high interest rates on private loans), high costs of inputs, exploitative middlemen, high mandi taxes, high cost of labour, lack of market linkages, lack of de-centralised storage capacity, cold storages and a range of other related issues.  

The BJP is heavily counting on Chouhan's relatively clean image, benefits of central housing, cooking gas and numerous schemes launched by the CM. Throughout the state, Chouhan is addressed as "mama" (maternal uncle). He has a rather insatiable hunger to interact with masses and people of all hues and shades. As per one estimate, Chouhan, in his past 13 years as CM, has led over 50 yatras. During his yatras, Chouhan often even left his meal midway to meet people. Yatras are a favourite with Chouhan as they give him "live" connect with the masses and provide first hand political feedback. 

The CM does not depend upon the party leadership to brief him about political workers in a particular constituency or a district. In most cases, Chouhan would be knowing over two dozen influential persons on first name basis. As  CM, he had organised dozens of panchayats, announcing many sops for the unorganised sector. He often spent about four days a week in villages, solemnising marriages under 'Kanyadan,' 'Ladli Laxmi' and other schemes for women and girls. The BJP in MP, had, in fact, brought out a two-part party manifesto — one focussing on women and girls. It is, therefore, significant that 73.86 per cent of women voters exercised their right to vote on November 28. In 2013, women voter percentage was 70.11 per cent. 

On the flip side, the BJP fought the November 2018 Assembly polls solely on Chouhan's image. Firebrand Sadhvi Uma Bharti who had led the party to a spectacular victory in 2003, was nowhere to be seen. Similar was the case for about half a dozen central ministers from the state. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 10 rallies did not convert Madhya Pradesh contest into Modi versus Rahul Gandhi on the lines of the Karnataka or Gujarat Assembly polls.  

Politically, winning MP is a must for the Congress. A Congress victory in Rajasthan may be attributed to Vasundhraraje Scindia's faulty leadership but Madhya Pradesh has traditionally been BJP's organisational hub. Three founding members of the BJP —Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Rajmata Vijayraje Scindia and Kushabhau Thackre — hail from the region. A defeat in Madhya Bharat would certainly signal bad omen for Narendra Modi and the BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections