Who will be next president of Sri Lanka?

Betting in Colombo, as I discovered last week, is rampant on who will be the next president. Also, last week, on September 5, the Joint Opposition (JO) led by the Rajapaksa clan — the most famous of them being former president Mahinda Rajapaksa who defeated the invincible LTTE ending a 30-year old insurgency when its leader Prabhakaran and his army were defeated comprehensively in 2009 — staged its biggest protest rally in Colombo. It included Mahinda's younger brother and former army colonel and defence secretary during the war and a contender for presidency, Gotabaya; his son Namal, also not without presidential aspirations; brother Basil, out on bail; and many others who lambasted the fractured National United Government (NUG) led by President Maithripala Sirisena of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) — two bitterly opposed parties which were brought together by a conjugation of interests and countries, including India, to oust the pro-China Rajapaksa. 

A similar mass mobilisation was organised in January 2016 to bring down the government. This time around, with the economy in a tailspin, postponement of provincial council elections due to the government's proposal for delimitation of constituencies being defeated in parliament — a blessing in disguise for the government — in which the JO abstained, the government was punched into a corner. The ruling formation has not forgotten the drubbing it received in the local body elections of February 2018 when the JO swept the polls. 

Like in Nepal, India is competing with China to preserve its increasingly questionable strategic superiority in Sri Lanka. The ruling government's heart is not with China. But the weight of the carry-over Rajapaksa debt makes it lean towards Beijing.

With the outcome of the next set of central and provincial elections uncertain but advantage the Rajapaksas, India, like Nepal, has decided to distribute its eggs in more than one basket. BJP MP and trouble-shooter Subramanian Swamy, a congenital LTTE baiter, is a long-time friend and ally of the Rajapaksas and was the Indian VVIP in Colombo during their rule. Mahinda will deliver a talk on India-Sri Lanka relations: The way ahead this week at Delhi — the fixture an alibi for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and NSA Ajit Doval who played a key role in Mahinda losing the elections in 2015 in his third crack at the job. While he has publicly accused India of regime change, he has kept open back channels. India will have to play its cards extra carefully this time.

During the 2016 protest rally, the government was united, had a two-thirds majority and was seen to be acting against the corruption of the former regime, alleged human rights violations and constitutional reforms to settle the ethnic conflict. Although the government has established fast-track courts to deal with corruption and (Gotabaya has been banned from foreign travel by court) and Office of Missing Persons which has given its preliminary report recommending the President suspend military and police officers implicated in disappearances during the war, it is unlikely the government will take any action against them as the military has been placed by the JO on a pedestal. It would be treasonous to act against soldiers who bequeathed glorious victory.

President Maithripala Sirisena has ruled out any early presidential poll. A new president has to be in place before January 9, 2020. My conversations with political pundits in Colombo suggested that a common candidate like in 2014-15 of the SLFP and UNP is highly unlikely now but there are still 16 months to go for elections. Rajapaksa's candidature for a third term after the 19th amendment which put a bar on it will be tested in court for its retrospective application. Meanwhile, some scenarios are being tossed around.

First scenario

A three-way contest between Sirisena, Wickremesinghe and a JO candidate — Mahinda or Gotabaya, even Namal or a dark horse. Both Maithripala and Ranil want to become president. As neither is a likely winner on his own (though Ranil nearly made it in 2005, but for the Tamil vote), it could be a common candidate other than these two. Many names are being mentioned, among them Sajith Premadasa, son of Premadasa, former president of the UNP.

Second scenario

Repeat of 2014-15: A common candidate of the SLFP and UNP versus JO

Third scenario

The JO and SLFP rump getting together, ie the SLFP and Rajapaksa's Sri Lanka People's Party (SLPP) plus the dissident SLFPers all unite against the UNP. In other words, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena re-unite against Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Fourth scenario

Gotabhaya for president and Mahinda as prime minister and Ranil for president with Maithripala Sirisena for PM. Most unlikely.

If Mahinda Rajapaksa is allowed a third term, there is nothing to prevent former president Chandrika Kumaratunga who glued together the grand unity between Maithripala Sirisena and Ranil Wickremesinghe to put in her claim. She will be backed by the SLFP rump and many from the Mahinda lot. The story doing the rounds is that Mahinda does not want Gota to become president as he will not provide space for the rest of the Rajapaksa clan. Colombo's grapevine also suggested that the US Ambassador in Sri Lanka had told Mahinda that Gota is not suitable presidential material. For any of the Rajapaksas to win, the party will require 70 per cent of the Sinhalese vote. At present, the line-up for the next president is complex and confused.

Besides the domestic factors, there is China which will be inclined towards a known Rajapaksa as opposed to a relatively less familiar Wickremesinghe or Sirisena. Similarly, the US and India could jointly back the same horse, but who, it is difficult to tell. Nobody in Colombo has the name of the winning horse. Nor is anyone prepared to guess.