Can AIMIM dent AAP, Cong chances in Okhla, Mustafabad constituencies?
In the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) finds itself in a peculiar position.
With the party contesting on just two seats — Mustafabad and Okhla — the AIMIM appears to be positioning itself as a minor player in the larger electoral landscape.
The party’s strategy hinges largely on how the vote consolidation plays out between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress, the two major political forces among the community.
Meanwhile, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has not held a campaign or a rally in the two particular segments, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has held a rally in Okhla and Seelampur, both constituencies dominated by Muslim population.
AIMIM’s two candidates in the fray, Tahir Hussain in Mustafabad and Shifa ur Rehman in Okhla, are accused in the 2020 Delhi riots. Hussain, a former AAP councillor who was expelled after being accused in the murder of Intelligence Bureau officer Ankit Sharma, has spent the last five years in jail. Rehman, a first-time electoral candidate, has also been arrested in connection with the riots.
Their candidacies are sure to stir emotions, particularly within the Muslim community, which makes up a sizable portion of Delhi’’s electorate, estimated to be around 14-15%.
AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has been hitting out at the BJP and AAP. At a rally in Mustafabad, he had said it was his party that has brought these two men outside jail. During his addresses in both constituencies, his remarks had been at the state of Muslim population during the riots.
“They (AAP) say they do not have Delhi Police in their hands, if you don’t, what stopped you from filing FIRs against those who led violence?” Owaisi asked.
Another slogan that has been prevalent during the rallies, has been “Jail ka jawab vote se (The answer to jail will be by votes)”, a slogan widely used by the AAP during the Lok Sabha elections last year, over the arrest of Kejriwal in Delhi excise policy case.
Meanwhile, a section of voters in the community has accused the AAP of doing less for the community during the CAA-NRC protest in 2020 in the national capital. The violence that erupted left 53 people dead and more than 700 injured and displaced. Mustafabad was one of the areas which had suffered the most during the violence, while Shaheen Bagh, an area in Okhla, saw a huge protest.
Owaisi also attacked the AAP-led Delhi Government for the dilapidated condition of roads, sewage system and water facilities in both constituencies.
In terms of the broader Muslim voting trends, the 2020 Delhi riots have left a lasting impact on the community’s political alignment. Historically, the Muslim vote in Delhi has been fractured between the Congress and AAP, with both parties vying for the same demographic.
However, in the last two elections in 2015 and 2020, a portion of the Muslim electorate shifted away from the Congress towards AAP, largely due to the latter’s appeal for its governance model and promises of equal development, while also to keep the BJP at bay.
The AIMIM’s entry into the fray could further complicate these dynamics. The consolidation of votes between the AAP and Congress will be a determining factor in how AIMIM fares in the upcoming elections.
For the AIMIM, the challenge will be to mobilise the Muslim vote without fragmenting it. In Mustafabad, where Hussain has a history in local politics, his chances may improve if the Muslim electorate remains divided between AAP and Congress, enabling him to secure a portion of the vote share. The Muslim population is lesser at around 40-45 per cent lower in comparison to that of Okhla.
Furthermore, THE AIMIM’s limited presence in the election could be seen as a tactical move. The party is not aiming to have a majority but to make a symbolic impact, positioning itself as a political alternative to a section of the Muslim population that feels left behind by the mainstream parties. Whether this strategy will pay off depends on a variety of factors, including voter sentiment, campaign dynamics and the outcome of the complex vote-sharing arrangements between the AAP and Congress.