Arvind Kejriwal's discharge a legal but bigger political reprieve

A Delhi court's order on Friday discharging Arvind Kejriwal and 22 others in the CBI's liquor scam case brings not just legal but also substantial political reprieve for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The discharge, which flies in the face of the CBI and legally means more than acquittal (judge said the case didn't merit trial), places Kejriwal on a high moral footing in the ongoing war of perceptions.

This means AAP under its national convener, on the back foot since the Delhi loss, can now enter upcoming electoral cycles in Punjab, Gujarat and Goa with greater confidence, riding on claims that the court has restored its “kattar imaandaar” (diehard honest) image which the BJP had sought to dent.

The BJP for its part has lost face as the verdict punctures their entire anti-Kejriwal campaign built around alleged corruption charges and the fact that their excise scam case against AAP leaders has fallen flat at word go.

Immediately the verdict has consequences for the BJP in Delhi where Kejriwal has dared the party to face elections today and also said he will quit politics should the BJP win more than 10 seats.

The BJP has of course sought to hide behind the reprieve to Kejriwal is temporary line but they know for a fact that they’ve lost the first round in the battle and even in the next, AAP has an advantage.

While the immediate impact of the court verdict would be on the morale of AAP cadres which have already begun mobilising, the long-term impact would be on AAP's existence as an outfit with the national party status.

Since its loss in Delhi last year, where it won only 22 of the 70 Assembly seats, the AAP has been working the math to ensure its national party tag stays.

For recognition and sustenance as a national party, an outfit must fulfil three conditions - win 2 per cent of the seats in the Lok Sabha (11 seats) from at least three different states; at a General Election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party must poll 6 per cent of votes in four states and in addition win four Lok Sabha seats and thirdly, it must already have recognition as a state party in four or more states.

The above rules prescribed by The Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968, require political parties to stay active across poll cycles and all the time.

“Both national and state parties have to fulfil these conditions for all subsequent Lok Sabha or state elections. Else, they lose their status,” Election Commission sources say.

The AAP, which attained the national party tag in record time of 11 years (in December 2023) since inception, must put its best foot forward in Punjab, Goa and Gujarat elections next year if it wants the existing recognition intact.

Under the present scenario, the AAP remains a national party with state party status in Delhi, Goa, Punjab and Gujarat and fulfils the other requirements of eligibility too.

But should AAP's fortunes decline in the next election cycle, it could meet the same fate as the Trinamool Congress which attained the national party status in 2006 but lost it in 2023 after failing to secure promising results in northeastern states, including Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, where it contested. Likewise, Sharad Pawar's NCP, which was recognised as a national party in 2000, also lost the tag in 2023 having lost the state party tag in Meghalaya, Arunachal and Manipur where it performed poorly.

The CPI was the third national party to lose the tag in 2023 due to poor electoral show as determined by the Election Commission's periodic reviews of the status of parties.

With Arvind Kejriwal out after honorable discharge and the court questioning the very basis of the CBI case, AAP leaders believe the party will put up a formidable fight in all three states where it currently had an electoral foothold - Punjab (AAP is in power), Gujarat and Goa (AAP is expanding).

With the AAP chief set to capitalise on his legal victory, notwithstanding future outcomes of the case, it's the opposition Congress which finds itself in a particularly peculiar spot.

Being the principal challenger to the ruling AAP in Punjab and the ruling BJP in Gujarat and Goa, the Congress stands to lose the most should AAP gain in these states.

That explains why senior Congress leaders have derisively called AAP a BJP underling saying Kejriwal acts on the convenience of saffron forces which have sworn by the "Congress-mukt Bharat" goal.

The Congress even made its displeasure on Kejriwal's court discharge known this week and dismissed the AAP chief's emotional breakdown as "crocodile tears."

In retort, Kejriwal reminded the Congress that he had spent over 150 days in jail and that his friend Manish Sisodia had spent over 500 days behind bars.

"Have the Gandhis spent any jail time?" Kejriwal asked.