Putin’s visit to India has multiple messages

The forthcoming 23rd India-Russia summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin represents much more than a diplomatic visit. It stands as a watershed moment on how India had defined its path despite pressure from the US.

New Delhi has prioritised strategic autonomy over alignment with either the US-led bloc or with Russia. The summit sends calibrated messages to western capitals — questioning effectiveness of sanctions on Moscow; that India’s strategic calculus operates on benchmarks different than those of Washington and European Union.

The Russian President will be in India (December 4-5) amid strained India-US relations over trade and tariff. The Modi-Putin summit is happening in the backdrop of the US having imposed punitive 50 per cent tariff on Indian exports — including a 25 per cent penalty specifically targeting New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases.

Despite facing the highest tariff — that places India in the same category as Syria and Myanmar, and higher than Pakistan or China — New Delhi has not altered its fundamental partnership with Moscow.

Modi-Putin are expected to take forward relations on multiple fronts – trade, manpower mobility, energy, banking, defence, space, commercial aviation and nuclear power.

Putin would be making his first visit to India since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in February 2022.

Indian multi-alignment

For decades, Indian foreign policy emphasised non-alignment and independence in international affairs. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar terms it ‘multi-alignment’ — meaning India simultaneously participates in multiple, sometimes competing strategic coalitions, based on issue-specific interests.

Though some analysts argue, the era of tactical ambiguity has ended, the Modi-Putin summit conveys, how post-Cold War assumption of global convergence toward Western-led institutions, was misplaced.

India has positioned itself as a bridge between western and non-western forums, participating in both the Quad (with the US, Japan and Australia) and BRICS (with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, plus new members). This dual engagement is a refusal to accept binary choices imposed by competing global powers.

Solving the question on defence

In the last week, two statements define what could be expected on military ties. At a FICCI-event, Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh said, “Our defence cooperation with Russia has been through fair and foul times. We are not going to stop defence cooperation with Russia.”

Separately the issue of India buying Russian fifth generation stealth jets the Sukhoi-57, till its own stealth fighter is ready, was addressed by Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, Chief of Integrated Defence Staff. He referred to India’s own fifth-generation jet that is expected post-2035 and said, “There is a gap (in capabilities for now). We are thinking of filling that gap.”

The Modi-Putin summit agenda includes discussions on procuring Sukhoi-57 stealth fighters, potentially with technology transfer and licensed production in India.

India, despite having security cooperation with western powers through frameworks like the Quad, maintains Russia as its indispensable ally for defence capabilities. Military equipment of Russian-origin still forms more than 50 per cent of India’s military inventory. The S-400 air defence missile system, deployed successfully during Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, demonstrated the effectiveness of Russian-origin platforms in India’s battle architecture.

New Delhi also sources military equipment from France like Rafale jet, or Safran engines or the Scorpene submarines. The US counts India as a ‘Major Defence partner’. A Rs 8,000 crore contract was inked with the US last week, the first since trade issues and tariffs led to a strain in ties

Sanctions on Moscow, helped India

In August, US President Donald Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs to force India to reduce Russian oil imports and distance itself from Moscow diplomatically. Since the Ukraine war began, India has upped its purchase from just 2.5 per cent of its crude oil from Russia to importing 35-40 per cent of its needs from Russian sources. However, this dramatic shift occurred because Western sanctions created a discount opportunity that aligned perfectly with India’s needs.

India feels singled out by the West

Indian officials point out that the US and European Union have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, however, they continue to import Russian uranium, palladium, fertilizers, and — until recently — significant quantities of Russian crude oil and refined products.

China, the largest importer of crude oil from Russia is not facing punitive tariffs while Germany, has got a waiver to work with two subsidiaries of Russian-based Rosneft on its soil.

Labour mobility and banking

The Modi-Putin agenda reportedly includes discussions on sanctions-resilient payment mechanisms, including connecting India’s RuPay system with Russia’s Mir payment network.

India and Russia are expected to sign a landmark bilateral labour mobility agreement. This looks to create a structured framework for the legal migration of skilled Indian manpower to Russia, protection of workers’ rights, and expansion of their employment across key sectors such as construction, textiles, engineering and electronics.