Erratic monsoon : India should prepare for uncertainty
#TheTribuneEditorial : The north-west provides an especially telling warning
INDIA’s monsoon is sending a warning that should not be ignored. August was the country’s hottest August since records began in 1901, even as rainfall remained 16% below normal. More worrying, the India Meteorological Department expects September rainfall to be below normal and temperatures to remain above normal over most of the country. The combination is more consequential than either statistic alone. A warmer country facing a weaker monsoon is exposed to greater heat stress, crop losses, water shortages and pressure on groundwater. The deeper concern is that rainfall is becoming increasingly erratic and uneven. A national average can conceal sharply different local realities: some regions may receive intense bursts while others remain parched. El Niño has contributed to the subdued monsoon, but natural variability is now playing out against a warming climate. India must therefore prepare not merely for less rain, but for more uncertain rain.
