The exit plan

The Prime Minister on Monday sought suggestions from the council of ministers for a measured way out of the current complete lockdown. The government’s attempt is to have an intelligent roadmap to walk out of the Covid morass into a rejuvenated,

re-energised beginning. The challenges are multifold: the rabi harvest, the massive procurement effort of foodgrains by the Central and state governments, the marshalling of the migrant labour force for the harvest and the restarting of the manufacturing process. Each of these is a herculean task. No wonder the PM wanted inputs from the districts where all the national policies should finally get implemented.

The business continuity plans that the PM has sought are not merely for the government. Every successful enterprise today needs an out-of-the-box plan to negotiate the massive disruption brought in by the Covid pandemic. Supply chains have to be resumed, consumer confidence regained and animal spirits revived; in short, people have to be convinced that this is not the end of the world and motivated to work harder, save and spend more, and travel without fearing the lurking virus.

After the 21-day lockdown, we need a 21-week plan to kick-start the economy. After the harvest and the procurement will come the monsoon. The daunting question is how the virus — which has remained remarkably under control in India so far — will behave during the rains. Could there be greater community transmission during the days of dampness, when dengue and chikungunya wreak havoc? The biggest task for the government is to isolate hotspots, guard against community transmission and to make people cautious of the certainties of infection, mortality and recovery. In this context, a life-versus-livelihood debate is a waste of time. In fact, productivity is largely a function of predictability. For a greater push to local manufacturing and Make in India, the collective levels of societal anxiety have to be brought down. To begin with, the administration needs a foolproof plan to bring lakhs of migrant labourers back to production hubs while maintaining norms of social distancing. 

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