The Indo-Pak frustration

JANUARY 1 is a day India and Pakistan have set aside for conducting diplomatic business in an air of civility; when for over 25 years they have exchanged a list of nuclear installations as if to suggest that war is a distant possibility, but there is also the instinct to preserve citizens of the other country with common cultural bonds. This January 1, too, while guns roared on the border and a day earlier an all-night skirmish killed two Pakistanis from its notorious BAT team (suspected of beheading Indian soldiers in the past), the foreign offices exchanged a list of their non-military nuclear installations and facilities along with a list of prisoners. And now, just when the Kartarpur corridor and a new government in Islamabad might have provided the scaffolding for sorting out extant differences, the pitch has been queered by reports suggesting a Pak-Russia deal for T-90 tanks, though there are Italian guns too.

If Kartarpur was an olive branch, the tank deal may compel South Block to maintain its line that the corridor was a faith issue and not linked to intra-state ties. The other complication is offered by Russia’s involvement in a deal for military hardware that will only be used against India. This raises the question whether an incipient Sino-Russia-Pak triangle may be boxing-in India because of its increased alignment with US’ regional security policy? Further proof may have been provided by a newly-minted US law that resolves to bump up ties with India while calling out China for obstructionism; Russia and Pakistan are anyway in the US Senate’s doghouse.

While India waits for the US promise of providing licence-free defence technologies to play out, it must explore the new communication channels offered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to hedge against regional isolation. The Russian President’s New Year message to PM Modi suggests India remains a priority country for Moscow and the four Xi-Modi interactions in 2018 have reduced Sino-India tensions. The US cannot be India’s sole comfort partner given its shifting allegiances in line with its national priorities.