The secular begum wins

The Bangladesh polls were the easiest to call. After the jailing and hanging of almost the entire top opposition leadership, there were absolutely no prospects of a spirited response from Khaleda Zia in Bangladesh’s eternal battle of the two begums. And so it turned out. PM Sheikh Hasina and her allies accounted for 90 per cent of the seats. Liberals and purists will frown on the quality of democracy on display in the past two general elections in Bangladesh. But social indicators show the country never had it so good, though Western think tanks have criticised Hasina for curbing dissent and displaying authoritarian tendencies. Her last five years have seen a 7 per cent GDP growth and halving of poverty levels. That, more than alleged violence, forms the bedrock of her support.

For India, Hasina’s secular outlook and a good economic performance have led to a respite from distress-induced migration as well as an end to ISI-sponsored provocations via Bangladesh-based Assam separatists and radical Islamists. Indo-Bangla tranquility has been sealed with a full and final settlement of the border. India has also sought to bind Bangladesh in bonds of economic interdependency by helping alleviate its power shortage and seeking transit routes through its territory.  Dhaka has also been adroit in keeping all its neighbours in good humour — it balanced its purchase of Chinese-origin submarines by allowing an Indo-Russian venture to build a nuclear power plant.

But New Delhi and PM Modi must sagaciously handle the potential time-bomb of 40 lakh stateless citizens in Assam. During the general election, Indian politicians will have to moderate their vitriol at the ‘other’, most of whom are suspected Bangladeshis. Popular opinion in Bangladesh must not be allowed to turn against New Delhi as it begins evaluating the Chinese proposal for an OBOR link terminating too-close-for-comfort at Chittagong. The decade-long sanguinity in Indo-Bangla ties will soon be tested. India must keep a firm lid on the communal cauldron to creatively exploit the opportunities and lower the remaining reservations in Dhaka for closer ties.