Explainer: Aviation leap, pilot shortfall

INDIA’S aviation story in 2025 is racing ahead, but the cockpit is running empty. On November 15, at a session on the sidelines of the CII Partnership Summit in Visakhapatnam, Union Civil Aviation Minister K Ram Mohan Naidu delivered a warning that the country will need around 30,000 more pilots as domestic airlines await the delivery of nearly 1,700 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. The numbers he cited cut sharply through the optimism. India currently has only about 8,000 pilots for a fleet of 834 aircraft and the gap is growing far faster than the pipeline that is supposed to fill it.

The Minister’s message was clear. The growth of India’s skies will collapse unless the country urgently fixes the manpower deficit. His remarks have triggered serious conversations across the sector, from training schools and airline planners to industry analysts who say the crisis is not on the horizon anymore. It is here.

Shortage of trained crew

The arithmetic is unforgiving. Airlines cannot run aircraft efficiently without a deep pool of trained crew. Each narrow-body aircraft needs between 10 and 15 pilots to keep schedules stable. This includes captains, first officers, trainees, reserves, and those on rotation or medical leave. If the fleet expands by another thousand aircraft, the sector would require a minimum of 15,000 additional pilots and this is a conservative estimate. When seen with the Minister’s projection for 1,700 incoming aircraft, the requirement balloons. The industry knows this is not an ambitious wish-list. It is the bare minimum needed to prevent disruptions, cancellations, and operational risk.

Industry experts say the current capacity of Flying Training Organisations (FTOs), the backbone of India’s pilot pipeline, is simply too small to meet demand. Many FTOs operate with limited aircraft, dated equipment, and too few instructors. They struggle to train even a few hundred candidates a year. As the orders pile up for new jets, the shortage of training infrastructure becomes an even bigger obstacle than buying aircraft.

Reality check

Jaideep Mirchandani, Group Chairman of Sky One, said that to manage operations efficiently, each aircraft needs about 10 to 15 pilots so that airlines can plan their schedules without disruption. “This means that if the fleet grows by another 1,000 aircraft, the minimum requirement could rise to nearly 15,000 pilots. Viewed in that context, the Minister’s remarks highlight the urgency of addressing the pilot shortage. A key step in this direction is to expand the number of high-quality FTOs, as the existing facilities can train only a limited number of candidates,” he said.

Mirchandani also offered a reality check. Expanding FTOs cannot be done overnight. “In order to address the pilot shortage, the priority should be to address basic challenges first. It should be a long-term plan as the deliveries of new flights need to follow a practical timeline,” he said.

The government, he acknowledged, is taking proactive steps to fast-track certifications and increase the number of institutions. But creating world-class flight schools requires heavy investment, long-term planning, and steady regulatory support. He pointed to possible solutions: partnerships between global training centres and Indian airlines, similar to joint training models used in other major aviation markets. Such collaborations can bring in modern aircraft, advanced simulators, and experienced instructors far quicker than the domestic sector can produce them.

The biggest barrier

The financial burden of becoming a pilot in India, including flying hours, simulator training, type rating and certification, can run into tens of lakhs of rupees. For many students, this is a dealbreaker. Those who can afford it often choose to train abroad where completion times are faster and training quality more consistent. India ends up losing talent even before it enters the system.

“Our policymakers, educational facilities, and financial institutions can also think of encouraging them through incentives, awareness campaigns, and special sessions to inspire them to consider aviation as a career,” said Mirchandani.

As per experts, without structured support, educational loans at reasonable rates, scholarships, or government-backed training subsidies, the sector will continue to miss out on potential candidates.

Even if India scales up training drastically, another challenge looms: retention. Airlines around the world are hiring aggressively, especially Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian carriers that offer higher pay, better rosters and faster career progression. Unless Indian airlines improve working conditions, pay bands, and training pathways, the country may end up training pilots who eventually fly foreign jets.

“The wider consequences of inaction are severe. If the pilot supply fails to keep pace with aircraft induction, airlines may be forced to slow expansion, drop new routes, or rely on foreign pilots, an expensive and temporary fix. Network expansion may stall just as regional air travel is taking off. Passenger load may outgrow capacity, leading to higher fares, reduced connectivity for smaller cities and a slowdown in the aviation-driven economic push the government champions,” said a pilot, who doesn’t wish to be named.

The country stands at a pivotal moment. It must decide whether to treat the pilot gap as a short-term staffing problem or a long-term national capacity challenge. The question is whether India can act fast enough. The planes are coming. The skies are open. The clock is ticking.