2019 poll: BJP may become a victim of complacency factor

KS Tomar 

Over one and a half years’ anti-incumbency aspect of the state government coupled with the complacency factor among the BJP cadres on the occasion  of parliamentary poll in 2019  may put a question mark on the optimism of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah the BJP will retain all four seats in Himachal Pradesh.

The BJP had won all four seats due to the ‘Modi wave’ in the 2014 general elections and it is expecting its repeat in the 2019 elections.

In the corridors of power, one point is being debated whether the ‘Modi wave’ will be witnessed again with the same intensity or whether the process of its gradual decline has already set in, thereby losing sheen to attract the electorates of the country?  The Prime Minister will have to reassure the youth about generating more jobs besides promising the people that he will continue his crusade against corruption and fulfil the unfulfilled poll promises made during the 2014 elections. 

In this background, Amit Shah’s visit to Shimla  during the first week of August assumes significance, as he is likely to initiate the process to finalise the poll strategy well in advance, as was done by him prior to the Assembly elections last year.

On the Congress front, AICC general secretary Rajni Patil recently toured some of the districts to gauge the mood of the workers who openly indulged in a show of disunity and factionalism. It may create a big hurdle in her mission to forge unity among factional leaders and their loyalists in the state. AICC President Rahul Gandhi has assigned her a difficult task of bringing warring factions together to face the BJP as a united force and snatch all four seats from the ruling party in Himachal. 

There is an established principle that whenever any political party forms the government, party cadres primarily start enjoying the fruits of power. As a result, lethargy as well as arrogance overtakes enthusiasm and the fighting spirit.  

The RSS had contributed a lot to the victory of the BJP in the Assembly elections and Amit Shah is likely to lay emphasis on close coordination between the party cadres and the Sangh Parivar, which will be a key to success in the parliamentary poll. The RSS will have a major say in the distribution of party tickets.

The RSS is guiding Chief Minister Jai Ram Tahkur who gives a lot of weightage to the Sangh Parivar. The Opposition has already launched a scathing attack on this new power centre, which has been denied by the Chief Minister.

According to reports, the BJP cadres are gradually becoming complacent, which may have an adverse impact on the outcome of the Lok Sabha poll. BJP President Amit Shah may focus on these portents and caution the party leaders and workers about the obligation to retain all four seats, as every seat will count for the party to return to power at the Centre. 

Unlike the Congress, the BJP is not facing a serious threat due to internal dissensions in the party, though two prominent groups are still intact. One of the groups is led by former Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, whereas former Union Minister Shanta Kumar is heading the rival group. Rivalry between Dhumal and Shanta is age-old and it was visible after the former lost the race of chief ministership following his defeat from the Samirpur Assembly seat in Hamirpur. 

The Chief Minister does not belong to any group but lately his frequent visits to Palampur to meet Shanta Kumar have created suspicion in the minds of his detractors about his preference for Shanta, which may be primarily due to the RSS factor. Union Health Minister Jagat Prakash Nadda is also considered close to Shanta. The Chief Minister, however, is in touch with Dhumal also to give an impression of keeping equidistance from both the groups.

But one thing is certain that leaders and supporters of both the groups of the BJP may work in unison, as stakes will be very high for Modi who will be fighting against the onslaught of opposition parties, which may join hands out of compulsion to survive on their respective turfs.

Analysts feel that the BJP President Shah may give a clear directive to the cadres to come out of the spell of influence of power and start working for the ensuing elections. He is likely to energise the workers and give them the target to win all four seats.

Political observers feel that it was a clever move on the part of the BJP high command not to encourage expulsions, though some leaders and workers had worked against the party candidates during the Assembly poll.  

But look at the Congress. The state Congress chief, Sukhvinder Singh ‘Sukhu’, indulged in an expulsion spree and adopted the principle of ‘pick and choose’, which has damaged the party. It is still a moot question as to how could the Congress high command approve such thoughtless action, thereby ignoring its possible fallout in the 2019 elections?

Now the BJP will get the support of those leaders and workers who were spared by the high command for their acts of indiscipline and it is bound to benefit the party nominees in the 2019 poll in the state.

(The writer is a senior journalist. Views  are personal)