Erratic monsoon, longer dry spells signal rising agro-climatic risks in Himachal Pradesh

Variability in monsoon rainfall, punctuated by prolonged dry spells, is increasingly defining the emerging agro-climatic risk profile of Himachal Pradesh. Farm scientists from Dr YS Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, warn that these changing weather patterns pose serious challenges to agriculture, horticulture and long-term food security in the state.

Traditionally, the post-monsoon months of October, November and December receive scant rainfall in Himachal Pradesh and are often marked by extended dry conditions. However, 2025 highlighted the growing unpredictability of this period. In Solan district, November and December recorded no rainfall at all, translating into a 100 per cent deficit. In sharp contrast, October witnessed an extreme rainfall event, with 165.6 mm of rain against a normal of just 26.3 mm.

A long-term study spanning 1971-2022 by the Department of Environmental Science at Nauni has revealed a significant shift in the behaviour of western disturbances. These weather systems, traditionally dominant during winter, are now increasingly occurring in April and May. As a result, winter months are experiencing weakened or delayed disturbances, leading to longer dry spells.

This trend was evident in recent years. An extended dry spell of 102 days, the longest in the past five years, was recorded during 2024-25, while 2024 itself saw a maximum dry spell of 81 days. Persistent clear-sky conditions over the mountainous terrain have further exacerbated the situation, driving higher daytime temperatures while intensifying night-time radiative cooling. This has increased the frequency of cold waves and frost events.

Long-term data also point to a consistent warming trend, with more frequent warm winter days in hill regions. In Solan, the long-term average maximum and minimum temperatures for December stand at 19.7°C and 2.9°C. However, December 2025 recorded significantly higher values of 23.1°C and 3.5°C, respectively.

According to Dr Satish Bhardwaj, Head of Department at Nauni, declining rainfall combined with rising temperatures could disrupt the cropping calendar of rabi crops. Warmer winters also threaten the chilling requirements of pome and stone fruits, essential for proper flowering and fruit development. In Shimla's wet temperate region, accumulated chilling hours in December 2025 fell to 224.3 hours, 93.3 hours lower than in December 2024.

The 2025 monsoon, marked by intense rainfall episodes followed by prolonged drought, underscores the urgent need for climate-adaptive strategies. Scientists stress that promoting drought-resilient crop varieties and traditional landraces is now critical to safeguarding Himachal’s agrarian future.