Scanty rains in Jan push deficit to 91%, impacting crops, weather

The region witnessed a significant rain deficit in January, with only 4.8 mm of rainfall recorded against the normal 54.9 mm, marking a 91.3% shortfall. This is the second consecutive month of deficient rainfall, emphasising the need for revised crop planning to sustain agricultural productivity under dry conditions. Farm scientists from Dr YS Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, noted that this is the fourth such extreme deficit in 25 years, with similar occurrences in 2007, 2016, and 2024.

The weather anomaly extends beyond rainfall shortages, as mid-hill areas have experienced unusually warm winter days. January's mean temperature rose to 12.1°C, surpassing the normal 10.1°C, according to Dr Satish Bhardwaj, head of the Environment Sciences Department at Nauni University. Prolonged water stress due to deficient rainfall from October 2024 to January 2025 has also affected groundwater recharge and surface water sources.

A significant concern is the impact on fruit crops like peach, plum, apricot and apple, which require sufficient chilling hours to flower and yield properly. From November 2024 to January 2025, only 240 chilling hours accumulated-far below the required 500-1000 hours for these fruits. Insufficient chilling hours may lead to irregular bud sprouting and flowering, ultimately reducing yield. Additionally, a continued rise in temperature could trigger early flowering, making crops vulnerable to frost damage if temperatures drop later.

The effect of warmer and drier conditions extends to vegetable crops, where water stress is becoming evident. Rising temperatures create a favorable environment for pests and diseases, such as powdery mildew in garden peas and increased aphid and mite infestations. Temperature fluctuations may also cause premature bolting in root crops and cauliflower, leading to loose curds, a phenomenon usually seen in March. Cabbage heads may fail to form properly, and onion growth may slow down due to insufficient cold conditions.

However, one positive outcome of the warmer conditions is improved seed germination, which benefits the timely raising of summer vegetables like capsicum, brinjal, and red chili in nurseries.

A brief spell of rain on February 4-5 provided temporary relief by restoring soil moisture and helping meet some chilling requirements, especially for apples. However, the large variation between day and night temperatures continues to impact human and animal health in the region.

Given these climatic shifts, experts emphasize the need for adaptive crop strategies, better water management, and disease control measures to sustain agricultural productivity amid unpredictable weather patterns.