The Met Comes of Age
How’s the weather today?’ may not be a conversation starter for most Indians, still it is very much a part of everyday routine with millions of people checking weather information in real-time on their mobile apps. In a vast country like India, which experiences varied weather conditions in different regions at the same time as it is happening now — snowfall and cold waves in the North to the lingering Northeast monsoon and rains in parts of the South — it is obvious for weather information to be intertwined with people’s lives. Meteorology is perhaps the only branch of science which is an essential public service. From being a subject of concern solely for sailing ships and colonial rulers who wanted to decipher unique characteristics of the tropical weather, meteorological services in India have travelled a long way in the past two centuries.
The journey of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) since it was established on January 15, 1875, is pretty much the journey of modern science in India. The met office was the first scientific department of the colonial government to be formed because other much older scientific pursuits under the Asiatic Society like the Great Surveys carried the tag of ‘surveys’ and were not organised like government departments. It was also an indigenous scientific pursuit and not an extension of European science like other scientific activities in the colonial period.
IMD built upon the network of astronomical and weather observatories operated since the late 18th century by the military and survey wings of East India Company, and started systematic observations, regular reporting and scientific forecasting of weather phenomenon. The department formally started working in Calcutta as ‘the scientific and technological organisation for atmospheric physics and weather and climate-related studies in India’. Besides increasing the number of observatories from 70 to 92, IMD established a Central Meteorological Observatory at Alipore to develop standards for observing instruments to be given to all stations. It was also decided to document all observations, analyse data, publish periodic reports (Indian Daily Weather Reports, Indian Monthly Weather Reports, Annual Summary and Memoirs of IMD) and disseminate the information among relevant government departments.
The man behind all such pioneering ideas was Henry F Blanford, the first head of IMD. He was the Imperial Meteorological Reporter, a post renamed as Director General several decades later. Blanford was earlier the Meteorological Reporter of Bengal and had a deep knowledge of tropical weather, including the monsoon. At IMD, he integrated the provincial observatories into an all-India system and established observatories in difficult regions like Leh. Assisting Blanford in the formative years of IMD was Ruchi Ram Sahni as his Second Assistant. Sahni was the first Indian employee of IMD. Besides writing daily and monthly reports, he used to deliver popular science lectures on weather forecasting. He later moved to Lahore to join the Government College and founded the Punjab Science Institute. His position in IMD was taken by another Indian, Lala Hem Raj, in 1888. Statistician-scientist PC Mahalanobis also worked as a meteorologist with IMD at the Alipore observatory for some time. The IMD headquarter was shifted from Calcutta to Shimla in 1905 and from there to Poona in 1928.
The study of the Indian monsoon has been coupled with the growth of IMD right from its inception. A major scientific contribution of Blanford was the issuance of the ‘Long Range Seasonal Forecast of Rains over India’. His successor, John Eliot, did foundational work on the monsoon onset and cyclonic storms and disturbances during the monsoon using surface observations, ship weather data and accounting for regional and global factors. Subsequently, an upper air observatory was established in Agra to launch balloons to gather data. Gilbert T Walker, head of IMD from 1904 to 1924, worked on inter-relations of the Indian monsoon with general circulations and identified factors like the Southern Oscillation over the Indo-Pacific region.
As meteorology transformed from an empirical science to the one based on modelling using computers, IMD constantly evolved its forecasting systems, resulting in the long-range forecasting model for the monsoon in use now. “The evolution of meteorological services since the earlier times has seen a paradigm shift in all components of early warning system, including observation, communication, modelling, dissemination and services over the years,” says Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.
In recent years, the nature and frequency of extreme weather events has changed, and monsoon rainfall too has become erratic due to climate change. It is not just sufficient to issue a forecast, but it is also necessary to predict the possible impact in urban areas, on agriculture and so on. That is the challenge meteorologists are facing the world over. “Climate change has increased extreme weather events and putting people at risk. By timely dissemination of warnings, we can prevent climate hazards from getting converted into disasters. With developments in meteorological and atmospheric sciences, we can develop multi-hazard early warning systems. As is often said, forewarned is forearmed. This way, we can prevent loss of property and lives,” feels Anand Sharma, president, Indian Meteorological Society.
The met department is poised to play a major role in implementing a new initiative of the Ministry of Earth Sciences — Mission Mausum — aimed at positioning India as a global leader in weather and climate sciences. The mission seeks to boost the capability in weather forecasting — short-term, medium-term, extended range, and seasonal — for multiple applications like agriculture and disaster management. This will be done through high-resolution models for improved accuracy in predicting monsoon behaviour, and strengthening observational networks with radars, satellites, and automated weather stations. “IMD’s has been a journey of scientific innovation, technological adaptation, and service to the society. Now we are entering a new era of reaching out to every household with weather information at any time and anywhere,” says Mohapatra.
Over the past decades, technological upgradation — from simple rain gauges and balloons to radars and supercomputers — has constantly helped in improving observations and accuracy of forecasts. The need now is to further finetune forecasts as well as extreme weather and cyclone warnings to minimise the impact on people and their livelihoods.
Milestones of the Indian Meteorological Dept
Port warnings 1865
Climate service 1908
Aviation meteorological service 1911
Ozone monitoring 1928
Agrometeorological service 1945
Publication of Rashtriya Panchang 1955
Marine services and flood meteorological service 1966
Storm surge warning 1977
Mountain weather service for the Himalayas 1998
Digitisation and automation 2006
Coastal inundation warning 2013
Air quality forecast 2018
Impact-based forecasting 2019
Urban meteorological services 2020
GIS-based applications 2020
— The writer is a science commentator