Adapt or perish

Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres believes that climate change, which is pervasive across the globe and is caused by global warming, is progressing faster than we are and if we do not take appropriate action by 2020, disastrous consequences await people and all natural systems that sustain us. Climate change impacts all facets of human civilisation — health, family income, livelihood, security, agricultural production (crops, livestock, fisheries) and international trade. 

To reduce the footprint of agriculture relative to climate change, it is imperative to understand how agriculture contributes to GHGs. Significant amounts of carbon dioxide are released by decomposition of soil organic matter and burning of crop residue and fossil fuels, i.e., coal and natural gas. Methane is produced by flooded rice fields. In addition, gut flora (methanogens) in cattle produce methane, which is a byproduct of enteric fermentation; cattle belch out the methane so produced. Nitrous oxide is produced by microbial processes in soils and manures, and excess application of nitrogen fertiliser. Innovative solutions are needed to reduce agriculture-generated GHG emissions.

India’s most important food security crops are wheat and rice. India is likely to see a large drop in foodgrain production because of heat stress and water shortage. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a one degree Celsius rise in temperature would reduce India’s wheat production by six million tonnes per year, a loss of about $1.5 billion. Scientists at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines have concluded that a one degree Celsius increase in minimum temperature would reduce rice productivity by 10 per cent. India’s annual loss for all crops, as estimated by the FAO, could be as high as $20 billion a year.

A two degree Celsius rise in average temperature is expected to make India’s monsoon highly unpredictable, and droughts more frequent, especially in the north-western region. It is predicted that by 2050, Punjab’s average temperature would increase by over 2.5 degree Celsius, which would be disastrous for food production as the state produces more than 20 per cent of India’s wheat and more than 10 per cent of the countrys rice. On top of Punjab's already depleted water resources, the state's rainfall is expected to decrease by more than 10 per cent by 2050.

An obscure consequence of climate change has only recently come to light. Scientists have reported that when wheat, maize, soyabean and peas are grown under high levels of carbon dioxide, their protein, zinc and iron content is reduced. Recent research has also shown that  B vitamins (riboflavin and folate) declined by as 

much as 30 per cent in 18 strains of 

rice that were exposed to elevated levels 

of carbon dioxide.

Crop pollination by bees will be affected by increasing the carbon dioxide levels. Plants exposed to high levels of carbon dioxide would produce less nectar and their pollen would have reduced the amount of protein, which would affect the bees.

By 2050, India's population is expected to be around 1.7 billion, up from the 2020 population of 1.39 billion. India's maximum foodgrain production hovers around 270 million tonnes, but to feed the increased population, more than 400 million tonnes will be required. This will necessitate the use of additional nitrogenous fertiliser, which is bound to further increase agricultural contributions to GHG emissions.

The World Bank estimates that if nothing is done to combat climate change, India might need to import more than twice the amount of foodgrains than would be required without climate change by the year 2050.

We need to invest in climate-smart agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes GHGs (mitigation) wherever possible, and enhances the achievement of national food security. Mitigation of climate change means avoiding the unmanageable via environmental and industrial measures and adaptation means managing the unavoidable through research and development.

Some of the mitigation strategies are: (i) Become carbon-neutral by 2050; (ii) Stabilise GHG emissions within 20 years, with two per cent reduction per year thereafter; (iii) Shift to low-carbon/green economy; (iv) Avoid using fossil fuels (coal) and incentivise use of renewable energy (solar power, bio-fuels); and (v) Reduce area under rice from 27 lakh to 15 lakh hectares.

Under the adaptation strategies, the major ones are: (i) Scientists must identify adaptive traits conditioned by heat stress-resistant genes through biotechnological techniques; (ii) Genetic resources (wild relatives) of crops that can tolerate expected future biotic (insect pests and diseases) and abiotic stresses (drought, salinity) should be identified; (iii) Enhance nutritional value of staple crops through biofortification; (iv) Sequester soil carbon, shift to crops with higher carbon storage potential; (v) Reduce forest clearing for agricultural expansion; (vi) Adopt conservation and precision agriculture to reduce GHG emissions; (vii) Practice agro-forestry (grow crops and trees together); (viii) Preserve wetlands, as they can store three to five times more carbon than forest trees; (ix) Incentivise efficient use of groundwater resources; (x) Develop improved cattle feeds to reduce methane emissions; and (xi) Improve fertiliser-use efficiency of crops.

The Punjab Government must be commended for creating the Directorate of Environment and Climate Change at the state level. I suggest that a Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change be established at the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) to conduct cutting-edge research to combat climate change, which should be interdisciplinary in nature. There should be porous walls between the disciplines. Scientists and policy-makers will need to implement innovative ideas to combat climate change. Albert Einstein once said, "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we used when we created them."

Alarming scenario

• The World Bank estimates that if nothing is done to combat climate change, by 2050, India might need to import more than twice the amount of foodgrain than would be required  without climate change.
• According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a 1°C rise in temperature would reduce India’s wheat production by six million tonnes per year, a loss of about $1.5 billion.
• By 2050, India’s population is expected to be around 1.7 billion, up from the 2020 population of 1.39 billion. India’s maximum foodgrain production hovers around 270 million tonnes, but to feed the increased population, more than 400 million tonnes will be required.

(The writer is former Vice-Chancellor, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana)

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