After Delhi, Bihar — the next political cliffhanger in the line

RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav on Thursday categorically rejected the possibility of the BJP-led NDA forming the next government in Bihar.

He was responding to a query regarding the impact of Delhi Assembly elections (which the BJP won, defeating both the ruling AAP and opposition Congress) in Bihar where elections are due later this year.

However, according to BJP leaders, results “very similar to Delhi” would be seen in Bihar when the state votes in October-November.

In fact, the Bihar NDA has set a target of 225 seats for the forthcoming elections.

But, according to Lalu Prasad, the Delhi results “would have no impact in Bihar”. 

“They (BJP/NDA) would be thrown out,” the RJD chief was quoted as saying.

India’s electoral roadmap

India’s electoral roadmap till 2029 (when the next Lok Sabha elections are held) is chock-a-block with a series of nail-biting political events across the country. 

After Delhi, many high-stake political battles are due, including the one in Bihar in October-November 2025, followed by those in key states like Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

Understanding Lalu

Lalu Prasad may not be as politically active as he used to be but his words can still stir the political cauldron of the state he once ruled as the Chief Minister.

He may no longer be active in Parliamentary politics but he knows when to say what, say observers.

Earlier, a suggestion from him that the RJD’s doors were open for Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, was enough to cause a minor political storm in the state currently ruled by the BJP-JD(U) combine.

It was left to Nitish Kumar to clarify that he would not repeat past mistakes.

Rejecting the RJD chief’s invitation to join the Opposition INDIA bloc, the JD(U) chief said, “We had mistakenly gone off track twice. Now, we will always stay together (in NDA) and focus on development work.”

The JD(U) has 12 MPs in the Lok Sabha, which are crucial to the BJP-led NDA in the Centre.

The saffron party does not have a majority on its own in the lower house of Parliament.

There are also speculations that Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant will contest the 2025 Assembly elections from Harnaut in Nalanda.

BJP riding high

After winning 48 of the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly elections, the BJP is riding high after thrashing AAP and INDIA bloc allies like the RJD and the Congress.

Rejecting Lalu Prasad's observations, BJP leader Samrat Choudhary forecast 200 seats for the NDA in the 243-member Assembly.

Going a step further, JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar predicted 225 seats for the NDA in 2025.

“Do hazaar pachees, fir se Nitish (Nitish once again in 2025),” he said.

The question is can the opposition ‘mahagathbandhan’ prevent the BJP-led NDA from retaining Bihar in 2025.

The next question is whether after Delhi, where INDIA alliance partners Congress and AAP went separate ways and benefitted the BJP, will the Bihar Mahagathbandhan be able to contest as one entity against the NDA?

Mahagathbandhan/INDIA alliance

Also known as the Grand Alliance, Mahagathbandhan was formed ahead of the 2015 Assembly elections in Bihar.

It comprises the RJD, the Congress and Left parties like the CPI, the CPM, etc.

According to a recent survey, the BJP-led NDA will continue to be a dominant player in Bihar if the Lok Sabha elections were held today.

Observers say arithmetic favours the BJP and the JD(U). If NDA partners stay together, they are unlikely to be defeated. 

In other words, if the BJP, the JD(U) and Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) remain united, it can become difficult for Mahagathbandhan partners to topple them.

The year will also witness the entry of former political strategist Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party in the politically critical state.

The party plans to contest all 243 Assembly seats. It would be interesting to see which vote share it will dip into.   

As on date, the NDA is confident of retaining power and the Mahagathbandhan of forming the next government. 

But, it still has to cross many hurdles, especially the seat-sharing process. 

The BJP’s successes in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi have raised the expectations of the party.

Will Bihar be a different political ball game — that is the big question.