Govt says wheat production 2025-26 resilient despite climate adversities

The Ministry of Agriculture on Sunday said it is “cautiously optimistic” on the overall wheat production outlook in 2025-26 supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices and enhanced varietal adoption, despite ‘localised’ weather-related impacts.

In a statement, the ministry described the current wheat season as "mixed but resilient," shaped by both climatic adversities and strong adaptive measures undertaken by farmers.

Wheat was sown on an estimated area of 33.4 million hectares this season, with no incidence of insect pests or diseases reported. Early and timely sowing led to an increase in acreage over the previous year.

However, unusually high temperatures in February exposed the crop to heat stress, reducing the grain-filling duration and impacting yields. Untimely rainfall and hailstorms at maturity further caused localised damage to grain quality and yield in some areas. The ministry cited several factors expected to offset the weather-related losses.

According to the government’s second advance estimate, wheat output in 2025-26 is pegged at 120.21 million tonnes (mt) as against 117.95 mt in 2024-25.

As the estimate was arrived at before the unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March-April damaged the crop, the next update by the government is keenly awaited by the stakeholders amid lower procurement in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

An additional 0.6 million hectares was planted during 2025-26, which the ministry said would partially compensate for localised losses. Early and timely sowing allowed the crop to escape terminal heat stress during the critical grain-filling stage.

A higher varietal replacement rate (VRR) has also accelerated adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient and disease-resistant seed varieties better equipped to withstand heat and biotic stresses, the ministry noted. Weed infestation was also reported to be low during crop growth stages.

"It is anticipated that the adverse effects of weather anomalies will be largely compensated by increased area, early sowing, and improved varietal adoption, thereby supporting stable national wheat production as compared to the crop season of 2024-25," the ministry said.

Procurement data from key wheat-growing states pointed to healthy production levels on the ground. In Haryana, wheat arrivals at mandis have already surpassed the government's procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes. with 56.13 lakh tonne already purchased -- an increase of around 9 lakh tonne over the same period last year.

"While localised weather-related impacts have been observed, the overall wheat production scenario for 2025-26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices and enhanced varietal adoption," the ministry reiterated.

“In response to certain media reports regarding the wheat production scenario for 2025-26, it is clarified that the current wheat season may be characterised as mixed but resilient, shaped by both climatic adversities as well as strong adaptive measures undertaken by farmers,” the agriculture ministry said in a statement.