IMD predicts early monsoon, will arrive in Kerala on May 27
This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala before its normal date. According to a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon will set over Kerala on May 27 with a model error of four days.
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by the onset of monsoon over Kerala and is an important indicator, characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to rainy season.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. It covers the entire India by July.
“As the monsoon progresses northward, people experience relief from scorching summer. IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) have been proven correct, except in 2015,” the IMD said in its statement.
Last year, the southwest monsoon arrived early on May 31. In 2023, the monsoon entered Kerala on June 8 and on May 29 in the preceding year. In 2021 and 2022, the monsoon arrival was recorded on June 1 and June 3, respectively.
The Southwest monsoon is vital for Indian agriculture, particularly for kharif crops. It provides the necessary moisture for planting and growth of crops like rice, maize, groundnut, and pulses. It is also vital for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country.
The weather department has also predicted an above normal monsoon this season. “India is likely to see above-normal rainfall this monsoon, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent,” M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, had said.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’; between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’; between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’; and more than 110 per cent is considered ‘excess’ precipitation.
