India's pharma industry likely to miss 2030 sales target due to US tariff, shipping woe
The head of Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India says the sector is now predicted to reach USD 80 billion to USD 90 billion by 2030, less than the industry target of USD 130 billion established in April of last year
India's pharmaceutical industry is likely to fall short of its sales target for the end of the decade as exports are impacted by Middle East shipping bottlenecks and uncertainty around US tariffs, as per Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India.
According to Namit Joshi, head of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, the sector is now predicted to reach USD 80 billion to USD 90 billion by 2030, significantly less than the industry target of USD 130 billion established in April of last year.
Joshi stated that the market was valued at approximately USD 60 billion in the year that concluded in March 2026, with approximately USD 31 billion coming from exports and USD 29 billion from domestic sales.
Our goal was to increase the market size in April of last year. In an interview last week, Joshi stated, "I don't see us achieving that growth target given the geopolitical changes, the Middle East crisis, and everything."
Since the crisis in West Asia drove cargoes to avoid the Red Sea, increasing freight prices and transit times, the industry has been under pressure due to the uncertainty around potential US tariffs and longer shipping routes.
Nearly half of all generic prescriptions filled in the United States in 2022 came from India, which is sometimes referred to as the 'pharmacy of the world' and a significant provider of generic medications.
Last month, US President Donald Trump said that all imported generic medications will be subject to a 0 percent tax for two years starting on 1 August. Following that, the rate would increase to 100 percent for a year and then 200 percent.
Joshi stated that although overall pharmaceutical exports increased by 2.13 percent due to demand from Brazil and Europe, India's pharmaceutical shipments to the US decreased to nearly USD 9.7 billion in the fiscal year that ended in March 2026 from roughly USD 10.5 billion a year earlier.
According to Joshi, the industry's yearly growth might remain between 6 percent and 10 percent for the next three years before reaching double digits as higher-value items like peptides and biosimilars acquire traction.
