Reducing agriculture’s climate footprint a prerequisite to Viksit Bharat goal: NITI Aayog report

Agriculture sits at the complex intersection of India’s Viksit Bharat aspirations and its net zero ambition. As the anchor of its rural economy, the sector supports 46% of the workforce and ensures national food security while contributing 14% to Gross Value Added (GVA).

A NITI Aayog report, however, said this foundational role of the agriculture sector characterised by the dominance of small and marginal farmers, is increasingly threatened by climate change, soil degradation and acute water stress.

It also pointed out how the sector contributes about 14% of India’s total greenhouse gas emissions, driven largely by methane and nitrous oxide from soils and livestock. The report mentions pathways to reduce agriculture’s climate footprint as a prerequisite to the Viksit Bharat goal. It also discusses the scale of transformation needed in crops, livestock and farming systems to balance food security, farmer livelihoods and climate goals.

“Shifting consumption from water and energy intensive rice towards climate-resilient millets can reduce emissions while strengthening resilience. This could be supported by behaviour-change initiatives such as the Eat Right Movement and National Millet Mission (NMM),” the report stated.

The government’s think-tank further stated that in order to ensure such transitions scale without compromising farmer incomes or food and nutritional security, the state must deploy “phased”, “spatially targeted”, and “socio-economically differentiated” roadmaps, particularly for scaling natural and chemical-free farming interventions.

“Consequently, agriculture in India cannot be approached through a narrow mitigation-centric lens. For India, the priority is safeguarding productivity, farmers’ income and food and nutritional security. This shall require focus on measures to build resilience to climate change,” it said.

Commenting on the report, economist Akash Jindal said crop diversification can be a major strategy in which farmers shift away from rice, wheat, or sugarcane dominated monoculture systems toward high-value crops (horticulture, oilseeds etc) or nutri-cereal crops as a climate adaptation strategy.

“This transition can enhance farm incomes by reducing risk and increasing value per hectare and enhance nutritional security. This transition also yields relative mitigation co-benefits as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per hectare decline when farmers shift from input-intensive monoculture systems to more diversified cropping systems,” he said.

The NITI report also talked about Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) for generating data-driven insights that support decision-making and navigate the complex interdependencies of climate, agriculture, and socio-economic systems.

“For example, dietary shifts towards healthy diets could reduce India’s emissions by 60% compared to baseline. Similarly, a robust IAM assessment, calibrated to India’s national context, can integrate supply-side interventions with demand-side dynamics (eg rising incomes, urban dietary shifts), while quantifying trade-offs such as land-use competition between food security, afforestation goals, and goals of other land requiring economic sectors,” it underlined.

Scaling natural farming in rain-fed areas for more equitable and sustainable agricultural growth was another key factor underlined in the report for taking the country one step closer towards achieving the Net Zero goal.

Rain-fed agriculture covers 51% of the country’s net sown area which contributes 40% of food production, and is characterized by low productivity, low input use, and monsoon-dependent yield volatility. These rain-fed areas face acute climate risks while supporting 81% of the rural poor, including marginal, tribal, and smallholder farmers. Natural farming offers a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for these regions.

Transitioning to natural farming can enhance productivity and help raise farmers’ yields and profitability. Since a significant proportion of these farmers consume their produce, this farming would also appeal to them given its focus on practices that promote health and nutrition.

It would also help bring stability and resilience to rain-fed farm systems by fostering soil health and practices that focus on climate resilience. The National Mission on Natural Farming (NMNF) also prioritises rain-fed regions for natural farming scale-up, the report added.

Agriculture in India is acutely exposed to climate risks. Frequent dry spells and extreme rainfall events have been disrupting yields. Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are projected to even reduce crop productivity.

In 2019, livestock emissions dominated agricultural emissions at 60%, through enteric fermentation (53%) and manure management (7%). This is followed by emissions from agricultural soils (21%) and methane from rice cultivation (17%). Bovine animals, cattle and buffaloes, are the dominant source of livestock emissions, accounting for 82% of such emissions.

The NITI Aayog suggested a two-pronged approach for enhancing the overall efficiency of the livestock sector in achieving 26% of mitigation co-benefits in 2070.

“Firstly, enhancement of the productivity of in-milk bovine animals through animal nutrition interventions through dedicated programmes on fodder and also breed improvements. Secondly, improvement of the share of in-milk bovines in the total livestock population through animal health related programmes under the National Livestock Mission,” it added.