PDP breaks NC’s five-decade hold, wins Budgam seat

In a major setback to the year-old National Conference (NC) government in Jammu and Kashmir, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on Friday won the Budgam Assembly bypoll—breaching a constituency that the NC had dominated uninterrupted since 1977.

According to the Election Commission, PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir defeated NC’s Aga Syed Mehmood by a margin of over 4,400 votes. Independent candidate Jibran Dar finished third with more than 7,000 votes.

Polling for the Budgam seat was held on Monday and recorded over 50 per cent turnout. The seat fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had won from both Budgam and Ganderbal in the last election, opted to retain Ganderbal.

The NC campaign this time unfolded without the participation of senior party leader and Srinagar MP Syed Aga Ruhullah, a three-time representative from Budgam. Ruhullah, who has recently emerged as one of the party’s strongest internal critics, stayed away from the campaign, accusing the leadership—particularly Omar Abdullah—of failing to fulfil electoral promises.

As results came in on Friday, political observers and locals alike noted that the “Ruhullah factor” played a significant role in NC’s defeat. Several NC leaders had previously made remarks against Ruhullah, alienating his sizable support base in the constituency.

Locals celebrating the PDP victory were seen raising slogans in support of Ruhullah and Shia leader Imran Raza Ansari of the People’s Conference, indicating that a section of their supporters may have voted for the PDP. Budgam has a substantial Shia population.

Budgam residents said their vote was meant to register a “protest” against the NC. “Omar Abdullah had said during the 2024 campaign that he would retain the seat he wins with a bigger margin. He won from Budgam but betrayed us,” said Ghulam Nabi, a local voter. Others said their vote was also a response to what they viewed as the NC’s “insult” to Ruhullah. “This is a message to the party that people are supreme and cannot be ignored,” said another voter.

Following the NC’s defeat, Ruhullah posted a Quranic reference on social media, writing, “Arrogance is the recipe for disaster. Consciousness, humility and introspection is the way.”

Political experts say the outcome reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the ruling party. The NC government completed one year in office last month, amid criticism that it has failed to meet expectations. “This should concern the ruling party, which is being perceived as losing ground and not delivering on its promises,” said Srinagar-based academic Professor Noor Baba.

The victory carries significant weight for the PDP. After winning 28 seats in 2014, the party managed to secure only three in last year’s Assembly elections. The Budgam result therefore marks an important resurgence.

PDP leader and MLA Waheed Para said the result was nothing short of a verdict on the performance of the Omar Abdullah-led government. “This election is a referendum on the government’s policies, delivery and performance,” Para said. “The government has created a vacuum in just one year. With 50 MLAs and an absolute mandate, they were missing on the ground in terms of governance. People wanted to send a strong message—that the mandate they give can also be withdrawn. This is also a message to Omar Abdullah Sahib.”