What happens next: J-K coalition scenarios

The J-K electorate has thrown up a fractured mandate in the 12th Assembly elections, with no single party close to the numbers to form the government on its own. The possible scenarios for parties to reach the magic figure of 44 in the 87-member House and form the government are:

SCENARIO I
PDP 28 + Cong 12 + CPM 1 + Independents 3 = 44
A fragile situation in which the BJP can cause serious problems

SCENARIO II
PDP 28 + BJP 25 = 53
NC may spoil the game by taunting PDP for aligning with BJP and giving it a backdoor entry into Kashmir. Congress is likely to be equally ruthless

SCENARIO III
BJP 25 + NC 15 + Peoples Conference 2 + Independents 3 = 45
PDP with highest number of seats and Congress with 12 will make it difficult for the government to function

SCENARIO IV
All parties stay put and don’t enter an alliance, which seems unlikely