45% deficient rains, water scarcity severe

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 16

With overall rain deficiency in the country hovering around 45 per cent due to the sluggish monsoon, a further movement in its Arabian Sea arm is expected after prevailing cyclone Vayu crosses the Gujarat coast, possibly by tomorrow evening.

According to the IMD, Vayu is expected to re-curve gradually northeastwards and cross the north Gujarat coast by midnight of June 17 as a “depression”. While that would put an end to the long journey of the cyclone the IMD has been tracking since June 10, it will also pave the way for monsoon winds to move up towards the Arabian Sea, say experts.

The progress of monsoon has been halted due to Vayu. As its intensity decreases, the monsoon current is expected to revive in the next couple of days. Notably, cyclones that develop in the Arabian Sea impact southwest monsoon more than those generating in the Bay of Bengal.

The country is faced with severe water scarcity, lowering levels in reservoirs, deficiency in June rainfall and severe heat wave conditions in many parts. Though Punjab, Haryana and adjoining parts in UP and Delhi are experiencing dust storms and gusty winds, the two northern states are expected to receive below normal rain this monsoon.  

Mahesh Palawat, VP Meteorology and Climate Change with private weather forecaster Skymet, says the northwest, which includes Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh, is not likely to receive well distributed rain this season. “Though Delhi is expected to receive normal rain, same cannot be said about Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh,” he says.

In other words, not only will the wait for seasonal rains be longer this year, these might also not be adequate. Ideally, it should have reached central India, including parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, while it has not even crossed Maharashtra till now.

The IMD says conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon to more parts of central Arabian Sea, Karnataka and remaining parts of Tamil Nadu. It is expected to cover more parts of central, north and south Bay, northeast India, north Bengal and Sikkim in the next couple of days.

As per the Central Water Commission, water level in reservoirs of South India and Maharashtra is lesser than the average for past 10 years. Several parts of the country are reeling under intense heat wave, especially Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha.