Exit polls predict NDA victory, some forecast 300-plus seats

Tribune News Service
New Delhi, MAY 19

There was a near-unanimous verdict by exit polls — the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance  is retaining power and majority in the 17th Lok Sabha comfortably.  The range varied from 242-plus seats to 360-plus for the ruling coalition.

On the day the country concluded the seventh and final phase of polling, television news networks began coming up with the figures, reminding the viewers that the results being flashed are based on responses drawn from sample voters.

Four days before the actual counting on May 23, the networks which conducted the exit polls and others who collated results suggested a broad trend — the country voted in favour of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Opposition led by the Congress was in the band of seats between 70-plus and 162-plus, while Others stood at 104-plus to 134-plus. 

The unmistakable verdict was that the Opposition could not translate its campaign into votes/seats to unseat the Modi-led government. 

One television channel figures appeared conservative and gave the NDA 242 seats and the UPA 162 and Others 136, while an average run by another network converted at least five polls to surmise that the numbers could be NDA 296, UPA 126 and Others 120.

Most networks which conducted the exit polls by different agencies preferred to put a figure with a broad indication that the actual numbers could swing marginally either way.

The results of these polls also suggest that states where the Congress wrested power from the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were going the BJP way, while in Karnataka, the ruling coalition was ceding ground to BJP. 

Karnataka is the only state in the South where the BJP can realistically hope to do well. In 2014, the BJP won 21 seats in the four states and one UT across the Vindhyas.

In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, considered the battleground states where the BJP had maximised five years ago, one exit poll gave the ruling party a massive 60-plus seats, while others were conservative in handing out such a sweep in the wake of the BSP-SP-RLD Gathbandhan.

During the debates, some of the number crunchers said while the figures do indicate a broad trend — that the voter favoured the incumbent — converting them into seats required greater inputs and refinements.