IMD forecasts warmer winter for Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Western UP and Rajasthan

Vibha Sharma

New Delhi, December 1

People in the Northwest—Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan—can expect a warmer winter this season.

IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday said above normal maximum temperatures (day) are expected in December, January and February over most parts of the Northwest, East and Northeast and many parts of Central India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the South Peninsula and some parts of Central India.

Night or minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal over many parts of Peninsula, some parts of Central and isolated parts of Northwest India. However, normal to above normal minimum temperatures are likely over many parts of Northwest and most parts of Northeast India, Mohapatra said, attributing the warmer temperatures to climatological reasons and factors like prevalence of easterly winds, though Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate La Niña conditions for most part of the winter season.

Mohapatra said that MMCFS and other global models suggest that La Niña conditions are likely to continue during the upcoming winter season. In addition to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the Indian climate. “At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the forecast period,” he said

Regarding the possibility of warmer temperatures affecting the grain quality and yield of the main winter crop—wheat—Mohapatra said the impact needs to be read between dynamic weather vis a vis dynamic state of wheat crop. Temperatures have different impacts on different stages of the crop.

Maximum temperatures during December are likely to be above normal over most parts of East and Northeast and some parts of Central and Northwest India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of the Peninsula and some parts of Northwest.

Minimum temperatures during the month are expected to be below normal over most parts of Peninsula, many parts of Central India and some parts of Northwest India. Normal to above normal minimum temperatures are also likely over most parts of Northeast and some parts of East and Northwest India.

Rainfall over the country as a whole during December is also likely to be below normal (< 71 % of Long Period Average (LPA)). Below normal rain is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of South Peninsula and some pockets of extreme Northwest where normal to above normal rainfall is likely.