K’taka trust vote likely today

Bengaluru, July 21

The fate of the fragile HD Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JD(S) coalition government in Karnataka is likely to be decided on the floor of the Assembly on Monday after it defied on July 19 the two deadlines set by Governor Vajubhai Vala to prove majority after the ministry was wracked by a raft of resignations by rebel MLAs.

Amid reports that the government was still trying to prolong the discussion on the confidence motion moved by the Chief Minister on Thursday, hoping for some kind of relief from the Supreme Court, the ruling coalition was making last-ditch efforts to win back unrelenting rebel lawmakers.

Kumaraswamy and the Congress had moved the Supreme Court on Friday, accusing the Governor of interfering with the Assembly proceedings when the debate on the trust vote was underway and sought clarification on its July 17 order, which they said, caused hindrance in issuing whip to the legislators.

The Assembly was adjourned till Monday after the Governor’s 1.30 pm deadline and the second one to conclude the confidence motion process by Friday itself was ignored, prolonging the climax to the ceaseless power struggle that has been on for the past three weeks.

Before adjourning the House on Friday, Speaker Ramesh Kumar extracted a “commitment” from the coalition that the motion of confidence would reach finality on Monday. With discussion on the confidence motion yet to be completed after treasury benches insisted that Kumar allow its speakers to voice their feelings, questions are being raised over whether trust vote will happen on Monday. 

The “delay” in completing the trust vote process was seen as an attempt by the ruling coalition aimed at buying time to woo back rebel MLAs, hunkered down in Mumbai to protect them from poaching by the ruling coalition, whose resignation has pushed the government to the brink of collapse. If the floor test is further delayed, it will worsen the political logjam, compelling the BJP to approach the Governor and even move the SC, party sources said. — PTI

Likely scenarios

1 If resignations of 15 MLAs — 12 of Congress and three of JD(S) — are accepted or if they stay away, coalition’s tally plummets to 101 (excluding Speaker), reducing the government to a minority

2 Coalition strength will fall further to 98, as two Congress MLAs are unlikely to attend due to health  reasons, while BSP MLA Mahesh may not show up as he reportedly didn’t receive any directions from party leader Mayawati

3 BJP’s strength likely to come down to 106 as Independent R Shankar may not not attend the session, fearing poaching by Congress as Speaker has not accepted his request for his seating arrangement along with Opposition

How they stack up: Assembly 225 

Cong-JD(S) 117* (Cong 78, JD(S) 37, BSP 1, 1 nominated, Speaker) 

BJP 107 (With support of two Independents)

‘Last day of coalition government’

"As Siddaramaiah, Speaker and Kumaraswamy have said they will seek majority on Monday, I am 100 per cent confident things will reach a conclusion. I am confident that tomorrow is the last day of the Kumaraswamy government." —BS Yeddyurappa, BJP leader