Tribune News Service
New Delhi, June 1
The India Meteorological Department today declared the onset of monsoon over mainland, two days after private agency Skymet said it had arrived. The Southwest Monsoon set in over Kerala today (June 1), coinciding with its normal date, the IMD said, while upgrading its countrywide forecast to 102% of the long period average (LPA).
Issuing the long range forecast update, the weather office said rainfall over the country in June to September season is most likely to be normal (96% to 104%). Quantitatively, it is expected to be 102% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. In its first update on 2020 monsoon in April, the IMD predicted 100% rains of the LPA with a model error of ±5%.
The region-wise forecast also has good news for the Northwest, which is expected to receive 107% of LPA this year. For Central India, rains are expected to be 103% of LPA, South Peninsula 102% and Northeast around 96%, all with a model error of ±8%.
In 2019, India received 110% of the LPA and the Northwest 98%. In the region comprising Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, western UP and the three hill states, the LPA is 599.5 mm. Last year, the region received 98% of it, that is 586 mm.
Meanwhile, in main sowing month of July, the rainfall on the whole is expected to be 103% of LPA and in August 97%, said Earth Sciences Secretary M Rajeevan. Both figures come with a model error of ±9%.
Officials said El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and neutral IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean. Global models are indicating cool ENSO conditions will prevail during the four-month season with some possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part. “All these are signs of good monsoon rains,” said Rajeevan. “ENSO neutral and weak La Nina conditions will help India get good rains,” he added.
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