Pakistan airspace still shut, weighs heavy on Indian airlines

A year after Operation Sindoor led to the closure of Pakistani airspace for Indian carriers, the disruption has moved beyond a temporary operational challenge to a structural drag on the country’s aviation sector. The financial toll is now quantifiable, the route distortions entrenched and the competitive imbalance increasingly visible.

Industry estimates indicate that Indian airlines have collectively absorbed losses of around Rs 7,000 crore over the past year, driven by longer flying times, higher fuel burn and reduced aircraft efficiency.

“The impact has been uneven, but pronounced: Air India is estimated to have borne losses of close to Rs 4,000 crore, while IndiGo’s hit is pegged at over Rs 1,300 crore. Monthly incremental costs across the sector are assessed at Rs 300 crore, pointing to a sustained erosion of margins rather than a one-off shock,” said industry sources.

At the heart of the disruption is a fundamental redrawing of air routes. Flights departing from north Indian hubs such as Delhi and Amritsar to Europe, North America and parts of Central Asia can no longer use the shortest westward corridor over Pakistan. Instead, they are being rerouted along longer arcs — heading south over Gujarat, crossing the Arabian Sea, and then turning towards Oman or the Gulf.

The detour has added one to three hours to several sectors, with consequences that go beyond longer flying times. Longer routes have increased aviation turbine fuel consumption by an estimated 30-35 per cent on affected sectors, while block times on certain routes have risen by as much as 40-50 per cent. The consequence is a direct hit on airline economics: higher fuel costs, tighter crew duty limits and lower daily aircraft utilisation.

On ultra long-haul routes, particularly to North America, the constraints are sharper. Payload restrictions arising from extended flight paths have forced some Air India services to introduce technical halts in European cities such as Vienna and Copenhagen. These stops, while operationally necessary, dilute the economics of non-stop long-haul flying and undermine a key competitive offering for Indian carriers.

The closure has also rendered some thinner international routes commercially fragile. Flights to Central Asian destinations such as Almaty and Tashkent have seen significant increases in flying time, raising questions over long-term viability if the current routing constraints persist.

Beyond balance sheets and schedules, the airspace freeze has altered competitive dynamics. Foreign carriers, which continue to access Pakistani airspace, retain the advantage of shorter flight times and lower operating costs on India-Europe and India-US sectors. This has enabled them to price more competitively and consolidate market share, even as Indian airlines are forced to pass on part of the cost burden through higher fares.

The result is a gradual but clear redistribution of traffic flows. Gulf hubs and select European transit points have strengthened their role as intermediaries between India and the West, as non-stop operations from Indian carriers become more expensive and, in some cases, operationally constrained.

Dr Vandana Singh, Chairperson of Aviation Cargo at the Federation of Aviation Industry in India (FAII), said the one-year continuation of restricted airspace access has had a measurable impact on airline operations, particularly for international and long-haul sectors. She noted that airlines have been compelled to reroute across alternative corridors, increasing flight duration, fuel burn, crew deployment costs and overall operational complexity.

She said for Indian carriers, the impact was more pronounced as fuel already constituted a major share of operational expenditure. Extended flight paths, she said, not only affected profitability, but also put pressure on scheduling efficiency, aircraft utilisation and passenger fares, while cargo operations had seen indirect effects through longer transit times and network adjustments.

At a broader level, she observes that the situation underscores how geopolitical developments directly influence aviation economics and operational planning, given that the sector operates within a highly interconnected global framework where airspace accessibility is critical to efficiency and competitiveness. She noted that while Indian aviation has shown operational resilience and adaptability, long-term stability in regional airspace management remains essential for cost efficiency, network optimisation and sustainable growth.

Airlines have already begun responding through network and capacity adjustments. Air India has trimmed certain international services, citing route inefficiencies and rising fuel costs, while across the sector there is a visible shift towards recalibrating schedules, optimising payloads and withdrawing from routes that no longer sustain margins under current conditions.

The experience mirrors the disruption seen during the 2019 airspace closure, but the duration this time has amplified its economic consequences. What was earlier absorbed as a short-term geopolitical shock has, over 12 months, translated into a persistent cost overhang.

With no immediate breakthrough between India and Pakistan, the one-year mark of Operation Sindoor underscores a deeper shift: the geography of Indian aviation has been redrawn, operating costs have structurally risen and airlines are being compelled to adapt to a longer, more expensive sky.