Imran ready to bat, with army as runner

Ayesha Siddiqa

On July 25, Pakistan will see its eleventh General Election for the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies. Clearly, the battle is being fought to capture Punjab more than any other province. This is because out of 342 seats of the National Assembly, 142 are from Punjab. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has just returned to the country from London to face the music in the anti-corruption judgment against him. He was in London to attend to his ailing wife. 

But more than anything else, his return is out of the consciousness to save his politics and future of his political party, the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N). Though he will be put into jail, it would improve his moral standing in front of his constituents and followers that do not believe entirely that his sentencing by the Supreme Court is just. 

Notwithstanding financial mismanagement by his government, his supporters and many other people do not accept a system of justice that distributes justice selectively. For instance, while Sharif is sentenced to 10 years in prison and his daughter for seven, murderers like Rao Anwar, a policeman responsible for extra-judicial murders, was set free on bail.

Besides the legal problems, there are other issues that Sharif is concerned about, like the establishment clamping down on his party workers, gagging of media over covering PML-N election campaign and other methods used to hamper his way.  Observers believe that the real issue is not corruption but the fact that he had managed to develop his own clique and wanted to pursue his own geo-political and political ambitions that did not gel well with the military. 

Furthermore, the armed forces found it difficult to obtain greater financial resources from the government during the last four years, which was primarily because resources were distributed to the provinces and not held by the federal government. This was due to the 18th amendment passed by the previous Pakistan People's Party government that devolved power to the federating units. 

The Generals seem more inclined to put their weight behind cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who has gained popularity amongst the urban middle class and the youth. It is worth noting that a large portion of the 105 million voters in Pakistan are under-35, a generation raised on a very statist and pro-military narrative. People are also willing to give Imran a chance. This inclination may become more serious when the establishment is seen as totally supporting Khan's party. The former cricketer becoming Pakistan's next head of the government is very much a possibility.

From a foreign policy perspective, Khan is a conservative man. He would certainly not wish to take control of foreign policy or take any initiative on India. This becomes even more evident after reading the recently released autobiography of his former wife Reham Khan. The book describes Khan's personality and what could be expected of him. He comes out as a man easily influenced by power and money but also given to changing his positions rapidly. Furthermore, the book describes him as highly superstitious man. Even while married to Reham Khan he engaged in strange practices to rid himself of effects of black magic. The book clearly presents a man, who would not be able to stand up to a strong military or carve a niche for himself.

His personality, hence, would make him totally unsuitable for doing anything visionary and negotiate peace in the region. 

— The writer is research associate, SOAS University of London South Asia Institute, and author of Military Inc.