It’s neck and neck in MP

Anup Dutta in Bhopal

It is April 17, six in the evening... Beelkheda village, situated close to the picturesque Bada Talab that overlooks domes of the mosque on the other end of the lake, has come alive all of a sudden. The village, a part of the prestigious Bhopal Lok Sabha seat, is where the BJP is looking to cash in on the Hindutva lehar (wave) by fielding hardliner, Malegoan blast accused Sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur. Standing against her is the Congress’ Digvijay Singh, who, last year, undertook the circumambulation of River Narmada, walking more than 3,000 km, to reinvent his political image.

Like the rest of Bhopal, election fever has been slow in catching up in the village. Nearly 18 km from the state party offices of the BJP and the Congress, it is yet to see the flag of any political party. Beelkheda resident Mukesh Meena says, “This time around, there is no Modi lehar. It is going to be neck and neck fight.” It goes to poll on May 12.

Bipolar contest 

Elections in Madhya Pradesh have always been a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress and this time around the Lok Sabha election has turned into a presidential style battle between the candidates, quite different from other parts of the country.

Here the campaigns of parties are built around their respective state leaders — the Congress Chief Minister Kamal Nath (with photos of Congress president Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi finding a place in the banners) and former CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan (with photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah in every poster).

Trend talk

The BJP lost the political edge nearly four months back when the Congress party won the November 2018 Assembly elections. It is now banking on Modi as the sole electoral face of the party along with a tornado of militarised nationalism that projects Pakistan as enemy number one. In the Assembly polls, the Congress had secured 40.9 per cent of the vote share. Despite the low numbers, the Congress had won 114 seats against 109 of the BJP, which had garnered 41 per cent votes. The Congress fell two short of the simple majority mark of 116 in the 230-member Assembly, but formed a government with the support of two BSP, one SP and four independent MLAs, bringing the tally to 121.

A cursory study of the party-wise votes polled for each constituency in the Assembly elections forecasts that the BJP is expected to lose 11 Lok Sabha seats if there is no change in the voting patterns. In that case, the BJP seems to have an edge in 18 parliamentary segments. In 2014, the party won 27 out of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Congress had won just two and, as per the election voting trends, could lead in 11 Lok Sabha seats. It could continue to lead in Chhindwara, but may not be able to compete with the BJP in Guna parliamentary segment.

The last Assembly elections’ voting pattern suggests Congress lead in Dewas, Ratlam and Dhar, while the BJP could gain Ujjain, Mandsaur, Indore, Khargone and Khandwa Lok Sabha seats.

Interestingly, of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress has not been able to win 14 in the past 15 years. These are Bhopal, Indore, Vidisha, Morena, Bhind, Sagar, Tikamgarh, Damoh, Khajuraho, Satna, Jabalpur, Betul, Rewa and Balaghat.

What MP wants

In Madhya Pradesh, 70 per cent of the population lives in rural areas and farm distress plays a significant role here. Understandably, both the BJP and the Congress aim to garner the votes of farmers in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections.

“When the Congress came to power, the state coffers were empty and MP was number one in the country in farm suicides, unemployment and rape. We took steps to strengthen our economy and waived off farm loans worth Rs 10,000 crore of 25 lakh farmers. Fifty lakh more are expected to benefit from the scheme in the next phase of loan waiver,” CM Kamal Nath told mediapersons.  However, the BJP is crying hoarse and alleging that the newly elected government has acted with the sole motive of succeeding in the elections.

After farmers, youths are considered to be the biggest vote bank for any political party. Recently, the Congress government announced to deliver a monthly unemployment allowance to the segment. However, not much is known about its effective implementation as yet. What is known is that there are 1.41 crore unemployed youth, of which 88 per cent are educated.

For a long time, Madhya Pradesh has been regarded by economists as a basket case, sending out migrant labour in the absence of employment opportunities. Voters in Madhya Pradesh want to see the narrative change and are desperately looking for an opportunity to prosper and advance once the current freeze in the election scenario in the country’s heartland thaws.