Mission 25: Long haul

Yash Goyal in Jaipur

Having won the Assembly elections last year, the Congress Government in Rajasthan is leaving no stone unturned to win the 25 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 General Election, the BJP had swept the state, which was then helmed by Vasundhara Raje. She had led her party to a landslide victory in the 2013 Assembly polls, winning 163 out the 200 seats. The polls are slated to be held in two phases in Rajasthan — on April 29 at 13 seats and on May 6 at 12 seats. Voters in the state are known to go with the party ruling the state, and the last three parliamentary elections, held in 2004, 2009 and 2014, have proved that. In all these instances, the Assembly polls in the state were followed by the Lok Sabha polls.

During the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, when the state government was headed by Raje, the BJP won 21 seats and the Congress four out of the 25. In 2009, the Congress was in power and won 20 seats in the parliamentary elections; the BJP had then won four while one seat went to an Independent candidate. During the Modi wave in 2013-14, Raje returned to power with a thumping majority of 163 MLAs. Subsequently, the BJP defeated its rival Congress on all 25 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Things began to change for the Congress early last year when, during bypolls, it wrested the Lok Sabha seats in Alwar and Ajmer, thanks to anti-incumbency of the Centre and state governments.  By year-end, public annoyance to Raje’s rule resulted in the BJP losing the state to Congress.

Now, the BJP high command has taken extra precaution in ticket allotment. Two new faces have entered poll fray and six sitting MPs have been dropped, including Minister of State CR Choudhary from the Nagaur seat. It has also forged a pre-poll alliance with Rastriya Loktanktrik Party convener Hanuman Beniwal (MLA) to garner Jat votes against Congress’ Jyoti Mirdha, a former MP. Its merger with the National People’s Party’s hadn’t yielded the desired results during the 2018 Assembly polls even though it had given a Rajya Sabha seat to its convener KL Meena. His wife had failed to retain her Vidhan Sabha seat. From Barmer, the BJP is not repeating Col Sona Ram, a strong candidate, but has fielded Kailash Choudhary, who had lost the Assembly elections. The Congress has fielded Manvendra Singh, son of former Union Minister Jaswant Singh, from the seat.

The Congress Party’s 13 new faces include Vaibhav Gehlot, who is in a keen contest against Union MoS GS Shekhawat from Jodhpur. The former’s father, CM Ashok Gehlot, had won it five times. Three other MoS from NDA — PP Choudhary from Pali, Arjun Ram Meghwal from Bikaner and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat from Jodhpur — and sitting MP Om Birla from Kota are facing dissent from within the party.

In the absence of a Modi wave, the Congress is optimistic about riding to success on Rahul Gandhi’s Nyay. The BJP, like elsewhere, is selling Rashtravad, Deshbhakti and Mazboot Sarkar. It is also pinning hopes on Modi’s star power and the recent airstrikes at Balakot. However, what could go against it is the emerging polarisation among Jats, Rajputs, SCs/STs/Muslims, threatening to affect Barmer, Jodhpur, Sikar, Alwar, Bikaner, Dholpur-Karauli and Tonk-Sawaimadhopur seats and upset Amit Shah’s ‘Booth Mantra’.

Besides, the CPM, the BSP and the Bhartiya Tribal Party are piecing together a triangular contest on at least five seats. BJP’s Mission 25 is in for a tough battle. Which way will the scales tilt?