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On the back of its allies, BJP in driver’s seat

The 2019 battle is expected to be a tough fight for the Bharatiya Janata Party, tougher than 2014.

On the back of its allies, BJP in driver’s seat

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Vibha Sharma in New Delhi

The 2019 battle is expected to be a tough fight for the Bharatiya Janata Party, tougher than 2014. As a Prime Minister, Narendra Modi was an untested entity then, now he is not. This is both strength as well as weakness of the saffron party, seeking second consecutive term at the Centre. It’s not going to be an easy ride for the BJP but with its trademark strategy, a killer instinct, a sizable cache of allies, a nationalist narrative and its ideological fountainhead RSS firmly by its side, the party seems to be in a good place, especially after the Pulwama terror attack and the following Balakot air strikes. The arrest of the absconding Nirav Modi in the UK is another ace up its sleeve. 

Strangely, the Congress has chosen to ignore BJP’s controversial decisions — demonetisation, for instance — and has persisted in labelling Modi a ‘chor’. The Congress’ narrative on joblessness also doesn’t seem to be making an impact for lack of real solutions. Besides, its ‘chowkidar chor hai’ jibe has given the BJP a good idea to replace Modi’s famous ‘chaiwala’ campaign of 2014. The BJP believes it has a winner in the ‘main bhi chowkidar’ campaign. The party is also banking on India’s better international position, young voters and their disdain for “dynastic politics and sense of entitlement” embodied by the Gandhis.

Real issues

The question is, has the BJP managed to convince farmers with the PM-Kisan scheme, middle class with budget sops, upper castes with reservation and youth regarding their future? As much as the BJP may like to deny, its traditional voters are unhappy. To avoid upsetting liberals and fence-sitters, the RSS has asked its affiliate VHP to keep key poll plank Ram Mandir on the back burner. And to avoid upsetting upper castes any further, it has also decided to go slow on its Dalit outreach.  

TINA factor   

The inability of the Opposition to join hands seems to be the BJP’s biggest strength. Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley sees the 2019 contest as the one between “a leader in whose hand the country is developing, is secure, and who can be trusted” and “multiple leaders, each trying to outwit the other”.  “They can only promise a temporary government if we go by the past precedents. One can be certain of chaos. The choice is clear — it is either Modi or chaos,” he said. The Opposition’s inability to find a common ground despite several attempts, rallies and optics is the biggest propeller of the there-is-no-alternative (TINA) theory. 

In 2014, the BJP-led NDA was a conglomerate of around 29 parties; this time it has 41 parties, brought together by the Modi-Shah duo ignoring past insults, ceding space and seats, and putting its traditional issues on the back burner to enhance the NDA’s chances. It has given the NDA a psychological edge at a time when Mahagathbandhan is nothing but a dream. It has allies in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Kerala and Northeast, while the Congress continues to live in a time-wrap, haggling on seats and petty issues.

To win friends, the BJP has not only sacrificed seats and issues but also ignored insults heaped on Modi. It is contesting mere five seats in Tamil Nadu and 17 in Bihar, the state where it won 22 seats on its own in 2014. It is on good terms with YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana Rashtra Samiti supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao, increasing its post-poll prospects. 

The BJP is also taking care not to upset the vote banks of allies and has thus put on hold the controversial poll planks like Article 370, Uniform Civil Code and the Citizenship Amendment Bill, though party leaders say one should wait for the ‘sankalp patra’— the 2019 manifesto — before “jumping to any conclusions”. The Hindutva issue is being kept alive through poster boys like Yogi Adityanath, Vinay Katiyar, Keshav Prasad Maurya, but in order to appear inclusive and as non-controversial as possible, the resolution of the Ram Mandir issue has been left to mediation and the court.  

Congress’ shortcomings

The onus of stitching alliances rests on the larger partner, which the Congress has failed to demonstrate. The multiple allies in the NDA camp are helping the BJP’s narrative of its wider acceptability and the “failure of the Congress to manage a coalition, its lack of pragmatism, and the persistence to behave as the big brother even when it has nothing in hand”. Meanwhile, the BJP also hopes to gain from this “strange unwillingness” within the Congress to acknowledge good work done during the UPA regimes. It’s strange that the Congress is choosing not to highlight the feats achieved during the tenure of Manmohan Singh. That would have been a better campaign against the BJP, say observers.  

Multi-phased elections

The spread out polls suits the BJP well. The 162 seats in three crucial states — Uttar Pradesh (80), Bihar (40) and West Bengal (42) —  will see polling on all seven days and Madhya Pradesh (29), Odisha (21), Maharashtra (48) and Jharkhand (14)  on four days. It gives star campaigner Modi to address a rally in one part even while elections are on in the other. It works well for a cadre-based party, and the BJP will have an edge on this count as well.

 

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