Testing times for regional players

Mukesh Ranjan in New Delhi

With the announcement of dates for elections to the 17th Lok Sabha, the stage is set for the country to choose its next government. By any standard Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, which together have 177 Parliamentary constituencies, are certain to emerge as the key battleground in becoming a decider. Incidentally, this time around the ruling BJP-led NDA, so far, appears to be essentially pitched against non-Congress regional parties — in UP (SP-BSP combine), in Bihar (RJD-led alliance), in Jharkhand (scattered opposition) and in West Bengal (direct fight against the formidable TMC).

The NDA had a rich haul of 116 Lok Sabha seats in these states in the 2014 elections. But unlike 2014, the BJP doesn’t have the advantage of a fragmented opposition in these states this time. In the politically crucial state of UP, which sends the maximum 80 MPs, political churning appears to have changed the scenario. This time, the BJP is seemingly up against double anti-incumbency, against the Centre as well as the state government. Furthermore, the party will be up against the combined might of the SP and the BSP even while the Congress, besides the breakaway faction of the SP headed by Shivpal Singh Yadav, are toiling hard to make the contest multi-cornered.

And, here lies a scant chance for the BJP, as both the SP and the BSP, which have historically been contesting on all 80 seats, are now reduced to contest only 37 and 38 seats each respectively. Keen observers of UP politics feel that the left out prospective candidates of the two parties as a result of alliance may either go in hibernation or opt for a ticket either from the Congress or Shivpal’s outfit. The emerging scenario may negate a consolidation of minority vote base in the state, which the two allies SP-BSP are looking for, as in 2014 and 2017 it was the division of Muslim votes that helped the BJP in getting a complete sweep, they said.

In Bihar (40 seats), the BJP in alliance with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) had a runaway success in 2014, bagging 31 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats. This time, with the BJP, JD (U) and the LJP bracing up to battle it out against the RJD-Congress combine, the state is staring at a largely bipolar contest.

Bihar too has emerged a tri-polar state politically, where the two poles — BJP and RJD — are fixed ones and are anti-thesis of each other. The third pole JD(U) is an oscillating force and its tilt to either of the sides has been making differences in the electoral politics of Bihar. In neighbouring Jharkhand (14 seats) too with JD(U) to BJP’s side and Sudesh Mahato-led All Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU) party in the NDA fold, very little has changed in the state since the 2014 elections and then BJP is a ruling party there. Opposition ranks, including Jhakhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress, are yet to decide on seat sharing. The BJP has poured maximum energy in West Bengal where it bagged just two Lok Sabha seats last time. It is emerging as a key challenger to the ruling TMC in the state, which had won 34 of the 42 constituencies. 

UTTAR PRADESH

• Vote share (2014): BJP 42.3%, SP 22.2%, Cong 7.5% and Apna Dal 1%
• Seats won (2014): BJP 71, SP 5, Cong 2 and Apna Dal 2 (Total: 80)
• Caste break-up: OBCs 40%, Dalits 20.8%, Muslims 19% and Upper Caste 23%    

BIHAR

• Vote share (2014): BJP 29.4%, RJD 20.1%, JD(U) 15.8 %, LJP 8.4%, Cong 6.4%, RLSP 3% and NCP 1.3%
• Seats won (2014): BJP 22, LJP 6, RJD 4, RLSP 3, JD(U) 2, Cong 2 and NCP 1 (Total: 40)
• Caste break-up: OBCs 51%, Dalits 16%, Muslims 16.9%, Upper Caste 17% and STs 1.3%

JHARKHAND

• Vote share (2014): BJP 40.7%, INC 13.5%, Jharkhand Vikash Party 12.3%, JMM 9.4%, AJSU 3.8% and Others 20.3%
• Seats won (2014): BJP 12 and JMM 2 (Total: 14)
• Caste break-up: STs 28%, SCs 12%, OBCs 36%, Muslims 14.5% and Upper Caste 10.5%

WEST BENGAL

• Vote share (2014): TMC 39.05%, CPI(M) 29.71%, BJP 16.8% and Cong 9.58%
• Seats won (2014): TMC 34, Cong 4, CPI(M) 3 and BJP 2 (Total: 43)
• Caste break-up: Upper Caste 20%, OBCs 23%, SCs 24%, STs 6% and Muslims 27%