Asim Munir’s high-risk geopolitical gamble

IN the fast-changing geopolitics of today, Field Marshal Asim Munir's choices are gathering ominously over Pakistan, stretching the country's thin economy, its political capabilities, its military resources and its diplomatic gambles.Pakistan's de facto ruler, who was a hated figure in the country after jailing its popular politician Imran Khan, has been on a roll after Operation Sindoor, talking up his military's prowess in the four-day war with India despite mixed evidence on the ground — on the airfields from Rawalpindi to Rahim Yar Khan, not forgetting Indian statements about its own "battle losses". Indeed, it was by projecting a victory over India that General Asim Munir became Field Marshal.Even before Operation Sindoor, Pakistan's military-business rulers had found the best way to impress the then newly installed US President Donald Trump in his second term. Crypto diplomacy was the militablishment's engagement of choice with the Trump regime and predictably gave them access to the inner sanctums of the White House.Soon after, came the terror strike at Pahalgam, and India's decision to strike Pakistan. Trump's claim of mediating the May 11 ceasefire of Operation Sindoor was repudiated by India, but Pakistan endorsed the claim wholeheartedly, gave Trump kudos and recommended him for the Nobel Peace Prize.Asim Munir got himself invited to lunch at the White House, mano a mano with Trump. Later, he also invited Trump to send American companies (ie, Trump's personal friends and golfing buddies) to excavate the country's rich mineral wealth in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.With Trump by his side, Field Marshal Munir believed he could make no mistake. He signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, with Saudi Arabia, theoretically putting the Pakistan military and its nuclear capabilities at the service of the kingdom as part of a wider push for influence in a region where India had developed a strong profile, especially after 9/11, when Gulf states distanced themselves from Pakistan and began to show impatience with its never-ending financial woes.Pakistan also joined the Board of Peace, the Trump alternative to the UN, which began as a body tasked by the UN to oversee the implementation of the ceasefire in Gaza, but has now armed itself, with a self-styled mandate for peace-making around the world.Munir then turned his attention to Afghanistan. The Pakistan Army steadily ratcheted up the differences between the two countries over the Durand Line that serves as the international border, one that Afghan Pashtuns have never accepted.It escalated the rhetoric over the Afghan Taliban's safe haven for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. At the end of February, Pakistan declared "open war" on Afghanistan, bombarding several places, including in the capital Kabul, and in the provinces of Kandahar, Khost, Paktika, Paktia and Nangarhar. Perhaps Pakistan believed it could tempt the US into joining the war, with the prize of Bagram, which Trump has said he is eyeing because it could serve as a US listening post on China.Now, within days of opening a front with Afghanistan, Pakistan has to navigate the quicksands of the US-Israeli war against its other western neighbour Iran.After the US-Israeli killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Iran began bombarding the Gulf states that host US military assets, the Pakistani ruling establishment has remained sanguine that its defence pact with Saudi will not be tested yet, as the Saudi-Iran peace agreement is largely holding. But only just, as Iran has bombed the US embassy in Riyadh and Saudi’s state-run oil major Aramco has had to shut down the Ras Tanua oil refinery after a drone attack.At home, it is dealing with several second order consequences of the Iran war as irate Pakistani Shia, and in some cases Sunni Muslims too, took to the streets to denounce the US-Israeli assassination of Khameini. Public anger spilt onto the streets in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, where 16 protesters were killed when US Marines fired at protesters trying to breach the US consulate compound.Protesters at Skardu in Gilgit-Baltistan, where the Shia are a sizeable number, burnt a UNDP outpost. Pakistan was quick to express condolences at the "martyrdom" of Khameini, and expressed concern that a head of state had been targeted in this manner, while a more robust condemnation was articulated at the UN.Meanwhile, a US plan-in-the-making to use Iran's minorities, the Baloch and the Kurds, for regime overthrow from within Iran threatens to stretch Pakistan's security resources even more. The last thing that Pakistan needs is for Baloch rebels in its Balochistan province to join hands with Iran’s Baloch.On January 31, Pakistan's security vulnerabilities in Balochistan were on full display in a wave of attacks by the militant Baloch Liberation Army. With that, the Baloch insurgency on the Pakistan side was also sending a signal to both the US and China that infrastructure development, mining or any other commercial activity are not welcome unless the local people are made stakeholders and their rights respected. A long war in Iran would increase Pakistan's difficulties in Balochistan.With Afghanistan, it is unclear what plan Pakistan has beyond raining down bombs, to attain the objective of eliminating terrorist hideouts. The Pakistan military should know from its experience with India that cross border terrorism continues even after punitive military strikes by the affected party.At a time when the US-Israeli war in Iran is threatening to send an oil shock through the world, a long drawn conflict against the Taliban in Afghanistan would drain Pakistan's finances, adding to its economic woes.As for the Board of Peace, Pakistan has already had its share of challenges. Days before the board’s first meeting in mid-February, Pakistan declared it was willing to send troops to Gaza, but only to monitor the ceasefire, while operations such as disarming Hamas would be out of the question.And crypto — Pakistan's passport to the White House — whose stock soared last year on the back of Trump's victory, is back to being what it always was — unstable, unreliable, dodgy.Lest India believe it can take comfort in Pakistan's problems, the sinking of the Iranian ship, IRIS Dena, off the Sri Lankan waters, in a part of the Indian Ocean where India claims to be the net security provider is oddly reminiscent of the time when Pakistan's generals were left sputtering when helicopters crossed into Pakistani territory from Afghanistan in 2011, hit their number one target, and departed.

Asim Munir’s high-risk geopolitical gamble

Within days of opening a front with Afghanistan, Pakistan has to navigate the quicksand of the US-Israeli war against its another neighbour Iran.

Nirupama Subramanian

Asim Munir’s high-risk geopolitical gamble

Within days of opening a front with Afghanistan, Pakistan has to navigate the quicksand of the US-Israeli war against its another neighbour Iran.

Nirupama Subramanian

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