For BJP, Punjab a tough mountain to climb

It was quite a spectacle to see Amit Shah wearing a turban and mouthing a popular Sikh greeting to begin his much-publicised Moga rally on March 14. Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini and Prime Minister Narendra Modi often turn up in turbans at Sikh gatherings. Whoever gives the BJP leaders such ideas to charm the Sikhs should be permanently barred from dishing out any political advice on Punjab.It is no secret that in the BJP decisions flow from the top. Even a media interview requires approval from the Central leadership. Amit Shah obviously did not consult local party leaders like Sunil Jakhar and Capt Amarinder Singh before announcing the party's decision to go it alone in the coming Assembly elections.The two former Congress stalwarts had been publicly advocating an electoral tie-up with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). It was Ravneet Singh Bittu who had vocally opposed any such alliance and it would not be surprising if he emerges tomorrow as the chief-ministerial face.In the absence of a meaningful engagement with locals, the Home Minister turned to one of his favourite divisive issues: conversions. If an anti-conversion law is part of the badlaav the BJP has to offer, it won't go far electorally. Conversion is not an issue agitating ordinary Punjabis.Poor people converting to Christianity for petty financial gains pose no threat to society or the state. An all-embracing Punjab won't easily digest the BJP's agenda of winning elections through religious divisions.Punjabis generally vote to oust arrogant leaders. They rarely have a party of choice. The landslide win of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the last election had more to do with the punishment meted out to the Congress-SAD-BJP for misgovernance than any hopeful outcome from the AAP leadership.Now they may be disillusioned with AAP, but are not sufficiently angry to throw it out of power. The room for manoeuvre is, therefore, limited for the BJP.According to a Sikh political thinker and author, Ajmer Singh: "The BJP won Haryana by isolating the Jats and uniting the non-Jats. It may adopt the same strategy in Punjab: divide the Sikh Jat votes and unite the Hindu, SC and OBC votes."The award of Padma Shri to the head of Dera Sachkhand Ballan and the subsequent Modi visit to the dera to pay tributes to Guru Ravidas in the Dalit heartland are apparently a part of this strategy.Dalits account for 32 per cent of the Punjab votes and play a decisive role in the outcomes of 23 of the 117 Assembly seats in the four districts of Jalandhar, Kapurthala, Nawanshahr and Hoshiarpur. Ravidassias constitute a major segment of the Dalits. And it is this segment the BJP is betting on.Also lending support to this electoral plan of the BJP is the frequent release on parole of convicted dera chief Ram Rahim, who has a large following in parts of Punjab's Malwa region. This section votes for the party the dera head chooses to support and his current favourite is the BJP. The dera at Beas usually maintains political neutrality.The BJP's Dalit outreach too may fall flat as the SC-OBC voters in Punjab remain a divided lot and support different political parties. That's why the BSP has not been able to make much headway in Punjab. And that's why it will be tough for the BJP to replicate its Haryana success in Punjab. Here, the odds are heavily loaded against it.Sikhs generally maintain a distance from the BJP because of its incendiary politics, communal agenda and patronage of the deras. The dominant Sikh philosophy is: sarbat da bhala (welfare of all). Punjabis are temperamentally secular. Even at the height of militancy, there was no serious communal divide despite grave provocations.To humour the Sikhs, the BJP has inducted several turbaned politicians. Mixing politics with religion, it often recalls the supreme sacrifices of Guru Tegh Bahadur and the Sahibzadas, and makes claims about opening the Kartarpur Sahib corridor, but all this does not add up much.On the contrary, the persistent RSS narrative of Sikhs being a part of Hindus particularly annoys the community. This is evident from the recent protests at Panjab University against attempts at saffron takeover of the campus.Farmers and farm workers are unlikely to back the BJP's power-grab attempt. First, the year-long farmer protests against the three controversial farm laws put the BJP leadership on the backfoot. Now the Seeds Bill, the Electricity Bill and the trade deal with the US have pushed them back to the path of agitation.At Moga, Amit Shah could have addressed farmers' concerns. Instead, he spent his time on non-issues.The BJP's national economic policies also offer little hope or comfort to Punjab. These have led to inequality unseen since Independence and wealth accumulation by a handful of crony capitalists. The promotion of religious polarisation, manufacture of social anxieties and politics of distraction may hide widespread economic distress and result in electoral wins but truth ultimately prevails.During the Punjab visits, the Modi-Shah duo did not touch the core Punjab issues nor did they offer any well-thought-out plan to extricate the state from the present predicament.Does the BJP have a vision to save Punjab from fiscal vandalism for which the ruling parties in the past had gained notoriety? Can it help the state lighten its debt burden piled up over the years with overspending, reckless borrowing and funnelling money through the benefits system? Or does it too, like the other parties, believe in short-termism and is working only to win the next election?Despite its so far dismal performance and a mountain of hurdles on its path to power, the BJP's Punjab push should not be taken lightly this time. Numerous handicaps apart, the power and reach of the vote-winning BJP machine should not be underestimated.Its organisational skills, financial muscle, the RSS backing and a favourably inclined Election Commission are unmatched advantages. Political strategies and caste calculations of the leadership often produce the desired results.

For BJP, Punjab a tough mountain to climb

An all-embracing Punjab won't easily digest the BJP's agenda of religious divisions

Nirmal Sandhu

For BJP, Punjab a tough mountain to climb

An all-embracing Punjab won't easily digest the BJP's agenda of religious divisions

Nirmal Sandhu

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