India needs to shield its core interests in West Asia

THE Gulf and the larger West Asia region have slipped into a phase of dangerous uncertainty. A slew of overlapping crises in the form of the war in Gaza, the long-simmering Israel-Iran rivalry, attacks by Iranian proxies like the Houthis in the Red Sea, and Yemen, Iraq and Syria were followed by a phase of negotiations brokered by Oman between the US and Iran.However, the abrupt, coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran, have knocked out the top Iranian leadership, leading to Iran’s retaliation across the region. The situation has now morphed into a wider regional contest with global consequences.A convalescence of interests of a belligerent US under a mercurial President Donald Trump, who wants regime change in Iran, the desire for regional dominance by Israel, which seeks drastically diminished Iranian capabilities, and inaction by others involved in their own backyard has brought about this catastrophic outcome. The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb and now the Strait of Hormuz, which are vital arteries for global trade, have become zones of high risk.These are desperate times for the Iranian military authorities -- the objective seems be to damage the civil aviation hubs and disrupt the flow of energy in the Gulf which will make the countries neighbouring Iran to clamour for an end to hostilities. For India, with entrenched economic, energy, diaspora and strategic stakes in the Gulf, this is not a distant conflict but a situation which demands timely, careful, calibrated attention and action.India is heavily dependent on energy imports, with just 74 days of crude reserves. Nearly two-thirds of India’s crude oil and a substantial share of its LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports originate in the Gulf, particularly from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. The retaliatory attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and the Qatari gas facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed has brought the Gulf energy infrastructure squarely in Iran’s sights.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade, has seen near-standstill tanker traffic as carriers avoid high-risk waters and war-risk insurance coverage collapses. Prolonged disruption to shipping routes or escalation involving major producers will directly impact the Indian household through fuel prices and cost of living.Indian exports to Europe and the Mediterranean pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Attacks on vessels and the re-routing of ships around the Cape of Good Hope will raise freight costs and delivery times. Trade disruptions in key routes like Bab el-Mandeb alone will affect 30 per cent of India’s westbound exports to Europe and to the US, hitting sectors from electronics to staples. Coming at a time when India aspires to expand manufacturing and integrate deeper into global value chains, these could prove to be severe disruptions.Around 10 million Indians live and work in the region, forming the backbone of sectors ranging from construction and healthcare to services and small businesses. Their remittances constituted 38 per cent of the $135 billion record foreign exchange and household income sent back home by Indian expatriates last year. A widening conflict has raised concerns about the safety of the diaspora and their job security; it could slash inflows and weaken forex reserves. Evacuation contingencies will arise, requiring immense resources, even as this could become an impossible task in a limited timeframe, bringing the government under tremendous pressure as escalation mounts.India balances its strategic ties with Israel, Iran and the Arab Gulf nations via a “multi-alignment” strategy. India’s ties with Israel span defence, technology and agriculture, while Iran, a country of 93 million people, remains important for connectivity to Central Asia and Afghanistan. India’s Chabahar project, which is its gateway to Central Asia, now faces heightened uncertainty.The Gulf states have emerged as key economic and strategic partners, with expanding investments, defence cooperation and people-to-people links, but they are all taking a battering. Bilateral cooperation and investments will take a back seat for now as global investors, in general, will tend to pull back into “safer assets”. Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), requiring diversification of strained oil reserves and strategic reserves, will face delays.Given its dependencies, India’s response so far has been marked by restraint and a refusal to be drawn into binary camps or criticism of military strikes on Iran. India has consistently called for de-escalation, respect for international law and the protection of civilians. It has engaged all sides through diplomatic channels. Yet this approach seems to have no place in the current world disorder, in which the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is paralysed, and a Board of Peace, ironically blessed by the UNSC, threatens to preside over decisions on the wider world, despite a limited mandate for Gaza.The evolving situation, therefore, brings into focus India’s long-term strategic posture. As a major trading nation with growing maritime interests, India cannot remain indifferent to threats to freedom of navigation. Its naval presence in the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean has already expanded in recent years, focusing on escort missions, anti-piracy operations and maritime domain awareness. The current crisis is bound to accelerate this trend, and India must work more closely with like-minded partners for preserving its sea lanes of communication, while preserving its strategic autonomy.Besides, the region is no longer just an energy supplier for India; it is a theatre where great power competition intersects with regional rivalries. Geography, economics and human connections bind India to the Gulf and West Asia in ways that cannot be wished away. The task before India is to shield its core interests of energy security, trade flows and the welfare of the diaspora, while contributing, wherever possible, to stability and dialogue. This is an increasingly fractured world. India’s ability to be nimble and think long-term will be tested in these circumstances.

India needs to shield its core interests in West Asia

The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb and now the Strait of Hormuz, which are vital arteries for global trade, have become zones of high risk

Anil Wadhwa

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