Iran is nowhere near capitulation

THREE weeks into the war with Iran, the US and Israel are no closer to attaining whatever pre-war objectives they may have had. There are no signs of a "regime collapse" in Iran nor of an "unconditional surrender" as demanded —long ago it now seems — by US President Donald Trump. References to ending Iran's nuclear programme, dismantling its missile capability, ending its regional disruptions, etc, have been cast aside and conveniently forgotten. The US priority seems to be a search for an exit — an off-ramp as they say — from what is potentially turning into a military quagmire.To date, no NATO member country nor any other US ally has responded to Trump's calls for assistance to reopen the strategic Hormuz Strait, which has been blockaded by Iran, disrupting global energy supplies. This lukewarm response speaks volumes for what is now globally considered an unnecessary war.Against all odds, Iran has survived weeks of bombing assaults and directed, per its choosing, the contours of a conflict it had sought to avoid. It has endured waves of US-Israeli aerial bombardments and targeted assassinations of its top-level leaders.The killing in an Israeli air strike, of Ali Larijani, Iran's National Security Adviser, eliminates an interlocutor capable of smoothing hurdles towards a ceasefire. Sadly, Larijani's death removes a valuable insider, one who could have provided an off-ramp. It yet again displays the gap in the Americans' understanding of Iran and its political dynamics.The US and Israel have dangerously widened the scope of the conflict. The transition to targeting energy centres has transformed the war into an intercontinental affair. The rules of engagement have changed with the US-Israeli strikes on critical Iranian economic assets. Iran shares its off-shore South Pars gas field with Qatar's North Field. The fields are conjoined and the world's largest gas reservoir.Iran's first response to the attacks on South Pars was to hit Qatar's North Field gas facility, with extensive damage. Qatar's Ras Lannan gas refinery supplies 30% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). State-owned QatarEnergy's principal consumers are India (14%) and China (25%). QatarEnergy has since declared force majeure on all its long-term supply contracts.The Iranian military has coldly listed the oil-refining facilities it will target. With deadly precision, Iran has struck each listed facility — from Bahrain to Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and deep into Israel, striking the Haifa refinery on Israel's northern-most coast. Significantly, Iran's strikes zeroed in on alternative supply routes, via Saudi Aramco's SAMREF refinery on the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the so-called East-West Petroline which bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint, and on the UAE's Fujairah port pipeline, which sits on the Gulf of Oman.Iran did not stop there. It has since blockaded the Hormuz Strait. This is not a closure. It is a blockade. Iran gets to choose which vessel, flying which country's flag, carrying what cargo and, heading to which port will be allowed to pass in the waters it has mined and now controls.Consider, for perspective, what Iran has done. It has bombed out some of the world's most important oil and gas refineries. It has blockaded the Hormuz Strait, one of the world's most vital chokepoints, through which over 30% of global energy supplies pass. In a matter of a few missile strikes and sea-mines, Iran has removed roughly a third of global crude and gas supplies.The shortages and supply chain disruptions are affecting almost every country across the world. Energy bidders sitting in Singapore, Hong Kong and London, including India's GAIL and other domestic energy players, are fiercely competing to secure supplies.For us, in India, this should be beyond politics. Iran's retaliation for the strikes on its South Pars gas field has upended global energy systems.Iran's ultimate goal is basic and existential; it is laser-focussed on survival without surrendering to a much stronger adversary. Survival against the two most powerful militaries in the world would alone signify victory. Iran's signalling is at two interlinked levels. First, internally. The domestic messaging is that the clerical establishment is resilient and united, fully able to face down the most formidable military in the world and, so, unlikely to crumble anytime soon. This is vital for the ruling establishment.Any sign of weakness or capitulation will be seen as weakness and trigger further waves of popular anti-establishment demonstrations. The internal messaging, therefore, is that Iranians have no alternative, for the foreseeable future, to the present establishment.Second, externally. To its neighbours in the Gulf, Iran's message is that the much-vaunted US security umbrella is highly vulnerable and Iran is a formidable power capable of collapsing that umbrella -- accept this reality, adapt and adjust your national strategic doctrines accordingly. A related message to global capital and technology is that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is no longer a safe haven and the Gulf countries are, instead, a high-risk territory.Added to this is the expected demise of the Abraham Accords. The UAE, Bahrain and, in particular, Israel, will all need to adjust their security-oriented policies vis-à-vis Iran.This is not an ode to an underdog. The reality is that Iran has overcome numerous leadership assassinations and absorbed weeks of punishing US-Israeli air and missile strikes. It is nowhere near capitulation. Iran is signalling that it is prepared to defend itself for "as long as it takes" and that it has a voice on how this war ends.In doing so, it is playing to its strengths. It is leveraging its strategic depth and geographic advantages and, quite typically, it is responding asymmetrically and vertically, preferring counter-value targets over hard-to-attain counter-force gains.With over 3,000 dead and the bombing of schools, their majestic silver-oak-tree-lined boulevards and their residential areas, Iranians must be stunned by what exactly Trump meant when he famously said last January that "help is on its way."Ironically, the US-Israeli military strikes were initiated at the height of a nationwide anti-regime sentiment, at a time when the establishment was at its most vulnerable and faced with daunting challenges. The consequences of the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets have not been grasped by Washington DC and Jerusalem, who have clearly misread public sentiment.Going forward, Trump may well have helped narrow a deepening schism between the people and an unpopular clerical establishment, compelling the former to forever resign themselves to their continuing plight under the latter.Ambassador Gaddam Dharmendra has also served as India’s High Commissioner to Zambia, as Consul-General to Hong Kong and Macau and headed the Disarmament and International Security Affairs Division and the Policy Planning and Research Division in the Ministry of External Affairs.

Iran is nowhere near capitulation

The US priority seems to be a search for an exit from what is potentially turning into a military quagmire

Gaddam Dharmendra

Unlock Premium Insights in This Article