Opinion: Terror keeps India on its toes

THE year 2025 was not the best one for India’s security. The country suffered ghastly terror attacks in Pahalgam on April 24 and New Delhi on November 10. The former led to a short war with Pakistan. Fortunately, hostilities ended soon, but as Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, they have only been suspended. Terrorism clearly remains a challenge, as does the fact that normalcy in Kashmir is a far cry even six years after the abrogation of Article 370. However, a plus point was the elimination of key Maoist leaders in central India.Despite the setbacks in the security arena this year, India did well geopolitically. New Delhi’s rift with the US led to the ‘rediscovery’ of the virtues of strategic autonomy. By standing up to the US, maintaining stable relations with the European Union and strengthening ties with Japan and Russia, India was an island of stability in an otherwise turbulent world.Fortunately, relations with China regained an even keel after the two sides worked in accordance with the border patrolling agreement they had reached in October 2024. In the Indian Ocean Region, too, there was relief as New Delhi’s ties with Sri Lanka and Maldives witnessed an upswing.What does 2026 have in store? Unfortunately, India-Bangladesh ties have not yet bottomed out. The situation in the neighbouring country has deteriorated sharply following the recent assassination of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi. The return of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rehman is a positive development, but the potential for further worsening of ties remains, given the forces at work to block Bangladesh’s recovery as a stable, democratic entity.Bangladesh borders four northeastern states of India. In the past, it has served as a platform to support separatist movements in Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur and Assam. It was also used to send Pakistani terrorists into India. Not many know that Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar first entered India in 1994 through Bangladesh on a forged Portuguese passport.The downfall of Sheikh Hasina has been used by Pakistan to re-establish itself in Bangladesh both through official and Islamist channels. More than half a dozen Pakistani military delegations have visited the country in the year since Hasina’s exile. These include clandestine visits by the ISI top brass. In addition, there have been visits by Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders like Ibtisam Elahi Zaheer. The Islamists led by the Jamaat-e-Islami have a substantial institutional network; they have expanded their street presence and are bidding fair to win the next election, taking on their erstwhile ally, the BNP. They have no love lost for India and the single item on their agenda is to declare Sharia as the law of the country.Pakistan remains a challenge. It seems to have convinced itself that the four-day conflict with India was some kind of a victory, if not a draw. The truth is that it exposed Pakistan’s vulnerability. India lost a few aircraft in the opening hours of the war, but it quickly turned around the situation to the point where no target in Pakistan was safe from Indian strikes. In contrast, the Indian integrated air defence system prevented any significant damage to India.But, having befriended the US, the Pakistani military believes that it is in a position to challenge India. Generating an external threat would be the easy way out for Field Marshal Asim Munir to consolidate his control. After all, it was Op Sindoor that helped his elevation in the first place. But the Generals know the true outcome of the four-day war, so they are not likely to challenge India militarily. They will focus on using terrorist proxies as they have done in the recent past. Pakistani polity remains extremely fragile and while Munir may be the de facto ruler, this is because its most popular politician (Imran Khan) is in jail.As for China, there seems to be no immediate threat since India continues to match the Chinese build-up along the LAC. However, in 2026, India needs to work on the second leg of its eastern Ladakh policy by pushing for de-escalation. There are aspects of disengagement that need to be completed, such as the dissolution of the no-patrol zones created during 2020-22 in four areas where the Chinese had blocked Indian patrols. De-escalation would target the additional forces that both sides have brought near the LAC in the region.India also confronts another kind of a challenge from its rift with the US. For more than 20 years, the US formed an important geopolitical pillar of India’s global security outlook. But the developments of 2025 have undermined the trust on which this was based. The US has a new National Security Strategy which has little to say about India except as an economic partner. America’s ties with Pakistan and China suggest abundant caution not to rely on the US too much.Indeed, 2026 should be the year in which India must work out a new geopolitical orientation to replace the one lost with the US. Besides emphasising multi-polarity, it also needs to take steps to boost the country’s defence expenditure in keeping with trends around the world.Multipolarity needs to be backed by a more robust self-defence capacity, and the Modi government must walk the talk in this area instead of relying merely on grand announcements.There are bound to be unexpected twists and surprises in 2026. But given the fact that the Indian economy is thriving and the country is politically stable, India does have resilience that will be proof against them.

Opinion: Terror keeps India on its toes

Despite setbacks in the security arena this year, New Delhi did well on the geopolitical front

Manoj Joshi

Opinion: Terror keeps India on its toes

Despite setbacks in the security arena this year, New Delhi did well on the geopolitical front

Manoj Joshi

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